Whalesbook
Kya chal raha hai market mein?
Global oil prices ka $120 cross karna India ke liye bahut badi problem hai, kyunki hum apna 85% crude oil import karte hain. Isse seedha inflation badhta hai, hamara trade deficit aur kharab hota hai, aur rupee par aur pressure aata hai.
Is sabka asar dekho, Sensex 1,100 points se zyada gir kar 76,400 ke aas paas aa gaya, aur Nifty 50 bhi 350 points se zyada gir kar 23,900 ke neeche chala gaya. Nifty Midcap 1.8% aur Smallcap 1.1% tak gire. Market mein volatility bhi 11% badh kar 19.40 ho gayi hai (India VIX), matlab investors ka stress level high hai.
Rupee US Dollar ke saamne 95.35 ke record low par aa gaya hai. Iska reason hai badhta trade deficit aur FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) ki bhari bikwali. Sirf April mein hi FIIs ne $7.8 billion nikale, aur saal mein ab tak $20.5 billion se zyada paisa bahar gaya hai. Jab US Treasury yields 4.42% par hain, toh Indian jaisi emerging markets investors ko kam attractive lag rahi hain.
Aur ek baat, Indian stocks pehle se hi expensive hain, Nifty ka P/E ratio 24-25 hai, jo historically average se zyada hai. Isse choti moti negative news par bhi market girne lagti hai aur investors jaldi paisa nikalne lagte hain. Real estate, auto, metals sectors isse sabse zyada affected hain, aur experts earnings forecasts bhi kam kar rahe hain.
Experts ko lagta hai ki market mein abhi aur volatility reh sakti hai jab tak ye oil prices aur global tensions control mein nahi aate. India ki economy growth toh kar rahi hai, par ye external factors par bahut depend karti hai, jiski wajah se jab global conditions kharab hoti hain toh risks badh jaate hain.