Whalesbook
Global Rally ka Asar, Lekin Sandeh Baaki Hai!
Aaj Friday, April 10, 2026 ko, global markets mein jo positivity thi, specially US aur Iran ke beech ceasefire ki khabar ke baad, usne Indian markets ko bhi zabardast boost diya. Is wajah se, Sensex 918 points badh kar 77,550.25 par close hua, aur Nifty 50 index 275 points jump kar ke 24,050.50 par settle hua. Pata hai, yeh pichhle 5 saal se zyada ka sabse strong weekly gain tha, jo February 2021 se ab tak nahi dekha gaya tha! BSE par registered companies ka total market cap toh ek hi session mein ₹6 lakh crore badh kar ₹451 lakh crore tak pahunch gaya.
FPIs Ne Kheencha Paisa, Par Domestic Investors Ka Zor!
Ajeeb baat hai na, ki itni badi rally FPIs (Foreign Portfolio Investors) ke paisa nikaalne ke baad bhi hui hai. Saal 2026 mein ab tak, FPIs ne lagbhag ₹2.1 lakh crore India se bahar nikaal liye hain. Sirf March 2026 mein toh record ₹1.17 lakh crore ka outflow dekhne ko mila! Iske chalte, March mein FPIs ka total assets under custody 13% kam hokar ₹62.46 lakh crore ho gaya tha. Aur yeh sab tab hua jab US-Iran ke beech geopolitical tensions badh rahi thi.
Valuation, RBI Stance Aur Future Ka Kya Hai Plan?
Abhi Nifty 50 ka Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio lagbhag 21 ke aas-paas hai, jo theek hai par mehnga bhi nahi keh sakte. Sector wise dekhein toh Maruti Suzuki India Ltd ka P/E 28.62 tha, jo automobile industry ke average 25.38 se zyada hai. Analysts ko lagta hai ki yeh high valuations foreign investors ko shayad deter kar sakte hain.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) ne April 8, 2026 ko repo rate 5.25% par hi rakha hai aur policy stance neutral rakha hai. RBI ne FY27 ke liye GDP growth 6.9% aur CPI inflation 4.6% rehne ka andaaza lagaya hai. RBI ne yeh bhi bataya hai ki US-Iran conflict se crude oil prices badh sakti hain, jisse India ki inflation aur import costs badh sakti hain. Global growth bhi 2.6% tak slow hone ki ummeed hai.
Global Investors India Se Kyun Darr Rahe Hain?
Bade-bade experts bhi keh rahe hain ki India mein foreign investment kam hone ke kuch structure issues hain. Jaise ki Nithin Kamath (Zerodha co-founder) ne bataya, India ki geopolitical vulnerability, oil price shocks ka risk (kyunki hum bahut import karte hain), high valuations, AI mein investment ki kami, aur tax changes jaise Long-Term Capital Gains (LTCG) aur Securities Transaction Tax (STT) mein badhotri. In sabki wajah se India, Japan, Taiwan aur South Korea jaisi jagahon se kam attractive lag raha hai.
IT sector ki baat karein toh aaj woh 2% gira, jo dikhata hai ki global slowdown ke fears aur foreign investors ki interest kam hone ka asar ho raha hai.
Aage ka market ka direction basically US-Iran ke diplomacy par aur oil prices par depend karega. RBI chahti hai ki growth aur inflation dono ko balance kare, par supply chain issues aur El Nino jaisi cheezein bhi risk ban sakti hain. Kuch analysts ko lagta hai ki RBI 2026 mein inflation control karne ke liye rates badha sakti hai. Goldman Sachs ka bhi kehna hai ki GDP growth 5.9% tak aa sakti hai aur inflation 4.6% ho sakti hai. Toh dekhte hain, kya geopolitical tensions kam hoti hain, FPIs wapas aate hain aur domestic economy strong rehti hai, tabhi yeh rally continue hogi.