Whalesbook
Russian First Deputy PM Denis Manturov India aaye the, aur dono ne milke Economic Cooperation Program launch kiya hai jisme 2030 tak trade ko $100 Billion tak le jaane ka plan hai. Bhai, target toh mast hai, par asliyat kya hai, woh dekhte hain.
Trade ka Current Scene Aur Energy Ka Game
Abhi ka scene yeh hai ki FY 2024-25 mein trade $68.7 billion ke aas-paas tha. Magar, isme $63.8 billion se zyada ka samaan Russia se India aaya, jabki India se $5 billion se bhi kam exports hue. Sara game India dwara kam daam mein kharide gaye Russian crude oil ka hai. Pehle India ka sirf 2.5% oil Russia se aata tha, ab yeh badh ke 35.8% ho gaya hai! Energy security ke liye yeh zaroori bhi hai kyunki West Asia mein problems chal rahi hain.
Sanctions Aur Payment Ka Jugaad
Is deal se India thoda tough spot mein hai. America aur Europe wale nazar rakh rahe hain. Kuch extra tariffs bhi lag gaye hain Russian energy par. EU sanctions toh third countries se refine hoke aaye Russian crude ko bhi affect kar rahe hain. Aur payment ka jugaad bhi hai – ab 96% trade rupees aur roubles mein ho raha hai, dollar ko bye-bye keh diya hai. Lekin yaar, itna bada trade imbalance hai toh yeh non-dollar payments kitna chalenge, yeh dekhna padega. India keh raha hai ki humein jahan se sasta milega, wahan se lenge, but secondary sanctions ka dar toh hai.
India Ka Trade Deficit Aur Girti Exports
Trade badh toh raha hai, par India ka deficit bahut bada hai. Indian exports June 2025 mein 33% tak gir gaye Russia ko, pichle saal ke comparison mein. Dawaaiyan jaise cheezein kuch kaam aa rahi hain, par oil ki kimat ke saamne kuch nahi. Russia India ka dusra bada supplier hai, par India ke total exports mein uska hissa sirf 1.1% hai. Agar oil nikalo toh yeh pura trade bahut chhota ho jayega, matlab abhi yeh deal sirf transactional lag rahi hai.
Energy Ke Alawa Bhi Hai Plans
Achha, sirf energy nahi, dono countries technology, AI, cybersecurity, aur advanced manufacturing mein bhi saath kaam karne ka soch rahe hain. Agar India aur Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) ke beech Free Trade Area ban jaye toh aur bhi mazaa aa jayega. India alag alag 27 se 41 countries se energy mangwa raha hai aur North-South transport corridor jaisi cheezein bhi explore kar raha hai taaki kisi ek region par depend na ho. Defence mein bhi India sab taraf dekh raha hai.
Future Outlook Aur India Ka Balancing Act
Basically, India ko energy chahiye aur economy stable rakhni hai global volatility ke beech. $100 Billion target ke liye trade gap kum karna hoga aur Indian exports badhane honge. India ek multipolar world chahta hai, par Russia aur Western countries ke saath balance banana mushkil hai. Yeh balancing act hi decide karega India ka future economic aur foreign policy path.