Whalesbook
Asia mein jab Strait of Hormuz band hua tha March 2026 mein, sabko yaad aa gaya ki India kitna imports pe atka hai. 88% crude oil aur 60% LPG toh bas West Asia se aata hai. Is incident se Asian LNG prices 140% tak bhad gaye the! International Energy Agency (IEA) ne toh ise sabse bada supply shock bola. Par sirf oil hi nahi, India 93% rare earth magnets aur green energy ke liye zaruri cheezein, jaise 100% silicon wafers aur 94% lithium-ion batteries bhi China se mangvata hai.
Ab dekho China ko, woh toh oil prices ke fluctuations se affect hi nahi hota. Unka decades ka investment coal gasification mein hai, jisse woh 90% ammonia aur kaafi urea/methanol khud hi bana lete hain. Unka coal gasification output 80 million metric tonnes hai saal ka. Humara India ka National Coal Gasification Mission jo 2020 mein shuru hua tha, usne toh bas 5 MMTPA hi banaya hai ab tak! Jo ₹64,000 crore ke projects approve hue hain, woh regulatory issues mein atke hain, jaise drilling depth ko lekar ladai. Sirf Jindal Steel and Power Limited (JSPL) ka ek hi plant hai jo 1.8 MMTPA banata hai.
Aur yeh jo energy transition ka trend chal raha hai na, woh India ko aur risky position mein daal raha hai. Solar panels, wind turbines, battery storage - sab mein China ka raaj hai. Global solar PV manufacturing capacity ka 75-95% aur battery ke liye critical minerals ka 60-96% wohi control karta hai. Hum log solar panels export toh kar rahe hain, par asli manufacturing India mein nahi ho rahi, hum bas assembler ban gaye hain. Iske alawa, India 87% antibiotic APIs aur 96.6% portable computers bhi China se import karta hai. Toh matlab, ek dependency khatam hui, toh doosri nayi dependency shuru ho gayi, woh bhi green tech mein.
Abhi March 2026 mein Asian LNG prices $18.45/MMBtu ke aas paas the aur abhi bhi volatility hai. Rare earth magnets ka market bhi tight chal raha hai. Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) oxide prices China mein 757,500 CNY/metric ton the aur 2026 mein 700,000–900,000 RMB/ton ya 1.2 million RMB/ton tak ja sakte hain. Bade players jaise Reliance Industries, Tata Group, Adani Group, JSW Group toh naye energy projects mein paisa laga rahe hain, par woh sab bhi China ke components pe hi depend honge.
Asal problem India ke policies aur unke execution mein hai. China jaise patiently, long-term investment karke strategic sectors mein aage badhta hai. India mein kya hota hai, jab prices badhte hain tab urgency aati hai, phir focus hatt jata hai. PSU's ka involvement bhi problems ko slow kar deta hai. Regulatory hurdles, environment approvals, land acquisition - yeh sab cheezein asli self-reliance ke raaste mein aa rahi hain. Toh sidha sa point yeh hai ki India apni tel ki dependency ko China ke green tech dependency se badal raha hai, aur yeh koi achha sign nahi hai.
Isliye, government ko reactive policies chhod kar ek proactive, integrated strategy banani hogi. Ismein cross-ministry coordination aur private sector ka role important hoga. Jab tak India apne upstream supply chain ko strong nahi karta aur asli manufacturing nahi karta, tab tak yeh dependency chalti rahegi, aur energy security ke goals poore nahi honge.