Whalesbook
Yaar, ye Middle East mein jo chal raha hai na, uski wajah se poore world mein market mein halla-gulla macha hua hai, aur India bhi isse bach nahi paya. Geopolitical tension badhne ki wajah se investors dar gaye hain aur paisa nikal rahe hain.
Aaj, matlab March 23, 2026 ko, stock market ki toh fat gayi. BSE Sensex 2.5% gir kar 72,688.89 points par band hua. Wahi Nifty 50 bhi 2.6% neeche fisal kar 22,516.85 points par aa gaya. Agar last month ke end se dekhein toh lagbhag 11% ki giraavat aa chuki hai.
Aur toh aur, apna Pyaara Indian Rupee bhi aaj tak ke sabse kam level par pahunch gaya, 94 rupay ke paar chala gaya US dollar ke saamne. Ab toh 93.74 tak trade kar raha hai. Ye fears dikhata hai ki paisa desh se bahar jaa raha hai. Brent crude oil ka rate bhi $110 per barrel ke upar pahunch gaya hai. Asia ke markets bhi same haal mein hain.
Ye jo crude oil ke bhaav badh rahe hain na, ye India ke liye double blow hai. Ek toh import ka kharcha badhega, aur upar se inflation bhi badhegi. Ab RBI ke liye interest rates par koi bhi decision lena bahut mushkil ho gaya hai. Pehle lag raha tha ki rates kam honge, par ab shayad unhe rates badhane pad sakte hain taaki Rupee sambhal jaye aur prices control mein rahein.
Foreign investors bhi bhaag rahe hain. Sirf March mein hi lagbhag $9.57 billion nikaal liye hain, jo October 2024 ke baad sabse zyada hai. Es mahine hi lagbhag $8 billion se zyada ka paisa equity se bahar gaya hai. Iska matlab hai ki currency risk aur uncertain geopolitics ki wajah se Indian assets ab attractive nahi lag rahe.
Kuch sectors par iska alag impact ho raha hai. ONGC jaise oil companies ko shayad fayda mile, par unka valuation thoda high lag raha hai. IT sector ki companies jaise HCL Technologies aur Tech Mahindra bhi thodi vulnerable lag rahi hain kyuki unke P/E ratios kaafi high hain, jabki Infosys aur TCS jaise peers kaafi neeche hain. IT sector toh February 2026 mein hi 19.54% gir gaya tha.
Aage chal kar kaise sambhalega sab? Rupee ke girne se imports (oil, raw material) aur mehange honge, jisse companies ke profit margins par pressure aayega. RBI ne currency ko bachane ke liye $100 billion tak forward dollar sales kiye hain, jo dikhata hai ki situation kitni serious hai. Agar inflation bahut zyada badhti hai toh RBI ko interest rates kam karne ke bajaye shayad badhane pad sakte hain, jo market ko bilkul pasand nahi aata. Desh se paisa bahar jaana ek bada risk hai, jaisa 2013 aur 2018 mein bhi dekha gaya tha.
Agle kuch din market mein volatility rehne ki puri ummeed hai. Ye sab iss baat par depend karega ki Middle East mein situation control mein aati hai ya nahi aur oil prices stable hote hain ya nahi. Agar situation aur bigdi toh Rupee aur gir sakta hai aur RBI ko sirf stability par focus karna padega, growth par nahi. Analysts predict kar rahe hain ki Sensex 12 mahine mein 68,659.77 ke aas-paas trade kar sakta hai.