Whalesbook
Toh ye SWFs basically apna investment ka risk manage kar rahe hain. Asal mein, India ka global portfolio mein weight bahut kam hai toh in par sell karne ka pressure bhi kam aata hai. UTI International ke CEO, Praveen Jagwani bhi yahi keh rahe hain ki India, inke portfolio ko diversify karne mein ek important role play karta hai, isliye ye log zyada selling pressure nahi banate.
Ab aate hain asli problems par. Global tensions ki wajah se crude oil ke prices bhadi hui hain. Isse India ka import bill badhta hai, trade deficit khulta hai aur apna pyaara Indian Rupee par bhi pressure aata hai. Iska seedha effect inflation par padta hai aur companies ke profit bhi kam ho sakte hain. Motilal Oswal ne report kiya hai ki FY26 ke liye jo pehle positive earnings forecasts the, woh ab neeche aa rahe hain. Special mention, public sector oil companies ke liye, jinko FY26 Q4 mein earnings mein dikat aa sakti hai.
Aur haan, apna Indian Rupee bhi fiscal year 2025 mein lagbhag 10% gira hai, aur lagta hai yeh 90-92 ke level par hi rahega US dollar ke saamne late 2026 tak. Ye cheez foreign investors ke liye returns ko kam kar deti hai.
Ek aur important point – India ka market performance baki emerging markets ke comparison mein pichhad raha hai. Pichhle 12 mahine mein Nifty 50 ne sirf 1.69% gain kiya, jabki Sensex toh 0.40% neeche gir gaya. Wahi, Taiwan ka TAIEX jump kiya 96.66%, South Korea ka KOSPI 156.91% aur China ka Shanghai Composite 35% tak badha. Shayad isi wajah se SWFs India se badi selling nahi kar rahe; kyuki dusre markets abhi zyada achha return de rahe hain, toh India unke portfolio ka chhota hissa bana hua hai.
Phir bhi, khatra tal nahi raha. Geopolitics kabhi bhi badal sakti hai, aur chal rahe conflicts Gulf SWFs ko apna investment re-assess karne par majboor kar sakte hain. Ye funds jo trillions manage karte hain, fluctuations se inke revenues par bhi pressure aata hai. Agar disruptions continue hue toh inko domestic needs ke liye international investments bechni pad sakti hain. India ka market global trends se kam connected hai, par agar emerging markets mein broader downturn aaya toh investment flows affect ho sakte hain. Plus, currency drops aur companies ke profit par uska asar foreign investors ko lalach dene se rok sakta hai, chahe stock prices attractive kyun na ho jayein. Log hamesha diversify karna chahte hain, par high-risk periods mein log perceived safe havens ki taraf bhaagte hain, aur India jaise markets ko bypass kar sakte hain.
Toh overall scene cautiously optimistic hai. Agar geopolitical tension kam hui toh FPIs wapas aa sakte hain, aur markets ko boost mil sakta hai. Lekin jab tak crude oil high hai, currency swings chal rahe hain aur global situation tense hai, tab tak careful rehna padega. Gulf SWFs par pressure aur India ka peers se pichhadna dikhata hai ki ye current stability bas dekhne ki cheez nahi hai, isko closely monitor karna bahut zaroori hai.