Whalesbook
Arey, markets ka mood abhi thoda complicated hai. Futures toh positive lag rahe hain, but FIIs ka paisa nikalna dikha raha hai ki andar se sab log thode worried hain.
Friday ko toh Gift Nifty futures ne ek achhi opening ka ishara diya tha, global cues aur Iran-US tensions thoda shaant hone se. Par ye khushi zyada der nahi tiki, kyunki FIIs ka paisa nikalna continue raha hai. Isse market mein confidence nahi dikh raha. Indian Rupee bhi 92.7870 ke aas paas dollar ke saamne kamzor ho raha hai. Aur Brent crude oil bhi $96.59 per barrel ke paas hai, jo inflation ko badha sakta hai.
Ab dekho, PL Asset Management ne kaha hai ki India ke macro scene mein risks badh gaye hain. High energy costs, weak rupee, aur global financial conditions tight hone se company profits aur GDP growth dono par asar padega. Siddharth Vora ka kehna hai ki rising costs se earnings compression ho sakta hai aur global liquidity kam hai.
Par Emkay Global Research alag baat bol raha hai. Unke hisaab se agar US-Iran mein ceasefire ho gaya, toh Indian stocks mein breakout aa sakta hai. Wo Nifty ke EPS mein 13-15% growth predict kar rahe hain FY25-FY27 ke beech aur 29,000 ka target March 2027 tak de rahe hain. Historicaly, geopolitical shocks se pehle thoda girawat hoti hai, phir recovery aa jaati hai.
Lekin India ki 80% se zyada crude oil import par dependency hai, isliye agar supply mein problem hui toh current account deficit badhega, inflation badhegi aur rupee par pressure aayega. Agar crude oil $100 per barrel raha, toh inflation 0.6% badh sakti hai, GDP growth 0.5% kam ho sakti hai, aur fiscal deficit 0.8% badh sakta hai.
Sectors ki baat karein toh IT stocks rupee ke kamzor hone se fayda utha sakte hain. Defence stocks bhi geopolitical risk se chal sakte hain. Financial services macro uncertainty se sensitive hain. Wipro ke liye Q4 FY26 outlook weak lag raha hai, isliye kuch analysts ne 'Reduce' rating di hai. Poonawalla Fincorp ko kuch 'Buy' ratings mili hain, but uska P/E 109.03 hai jo sector average 23.49 se kaafi upar hai.
Sabse badi chinta hai FIIs ka paisa lagatar nikalna. Isse lagta hai ki global investors India mein invest karne mein hesitate kar rahe hain. Energy aur input costs badhne se companies ke profit margins par seedha impact pad raha hai. Yeh sab operational expenses earnings growth ko kam kar sakte hain. India ki energy import par high dependency geopolitical instability ke time risk deti hai, jisse import bill badhegi, current account deficit aur inflation badhegi. Isse RBI ko apni monetary policy change karni pad sakti hai. Global financial conditions tight hone se domestic borrowing costs bhi badhenge, jo businesses aur government ke liye pressure banega.
Aage kya hoga, yeh geopolitical developments, crude oil prices aur FII flows par depend karega. Investors ko disciplined rehna chahiye aur strong fundamentals wali companies par focus karna chahiye.