Whalesbook
Kal Sensex aur Nifty 1% se zyada badhkar band hue the, par asal mein investors thoda chintit hain. GIFT Nifty ka thoda weak dikhna iska signal hai. Foreign investors ka sell-off aur domestic investors ki buying ka trend abhi bhi chal raha hai, jo market ki stability par sawaal khada karta hai.
Market analysts bol rahe hain ki Nifty 50 abhi 17.3 times ke forward earnings par trade kar raha hai. Ye numbers last 10 years ke average se 7% kam hain, jo historically support ka kaam karte hain. Lekin, India ka valuation abhi bhi padosi countries jaise China, South Korea, Hong Kong se zyada hai, jahan shares saste mil rahe hain. Isliye FIIs ko shayad India mein abhi investment karna mehnga lag raha hai.
Ab baat karte hain crude oil ki. West Asia mein tensions badhne se oil prices $115 per barrel ke paar pahunch gaye hain. India apni 85% crude oil ki zaroorat import karta hai, toh price badhne ka seedha asar hamari economy par padega. Experts ka andaaza hai ki agar crude oil $10 aur badh gaya, toh FY27 mein inflation 55 se 60 basis points badh sakta hai aur current account deficit bhi 30 se 40 basis points widen ho sakta hai. Isse RBI ko bhi interest rates high rakhne pad sakte hain.
FIIs ne toh ₹8,167 crore ka maal becha, aur ye trend last fiscal mein bhi dekha gaya tha, jab unhone ₹1.6-1.8 lakh crore nikale the. Iske opposite, DIIs ne ₹8,000 crore se zyada ki kharidari ki hai, jo market ko girne se rok raha hai. Ye domestic buying bahut important hai, lekin ye kab tak FIIs ke sell-off ko counter kar paayegi, yeh dekhna hoga.
Sector-wise dekhein toh auto aur consumer goods sector par pressure aa sakta hai energy costs ki wajah se. Banking aur capital goods sectors ko domestic demand se fayda mil sakta hai, par banks ke liye profit margins tight ho sakte hain.
Ab sabki nazar geopolitical developments, oil prices aur RBI ki policy par rahegi. Agar domestic demand bani rahi aur external pressures control mein rahe, toh market medium se long term mein acha kar sakta hai. Par filhaal FIIs ki selling aur valuation ka premium ek concern hai.