Whalesbook
Inflation Forecast Badhi Oil Prices Ke Chakkar Mein
Sabse pehle inflation ki baat karte hain. Finance Ministry ne saaf saaf keh diya hai ki is fiscal year mein CPI inflation ab 5.5% se 6% ke beech mein reh sakta hai. Ye badhotri mostly global oil prices ki wajah se hai, jahan Brent crude $109 per barrel ke aas paas chal raha hai. Geopolitical tensions bhi oil markets ko disturb kar rahe hain. Khane peene ki cheezon ke daam bhi badh sakte hain, climate change ya El Nino ki wajah se. Already, April mein WPI inflation 8.3% par pahunch gaya tha.
Inflation Badhne Ke Baad Bhi RBI Nahi Badhayega Rates
Ab RBI ka game dekhte hain. Itni mehngai badhne ka forecast hone ke baad bhi, RBI ne kaha hai ki policy meetings mein rates badhane ka koi plan nahi hai. Abhi repo rate 5.25% par hai. Ye decision growth ko support karne ke liye liya gaya hai, kyunki higher costs aur global uncertainty ka bhi impact hai. Kuch analysts jaise HSBC ka kehna hai ki FY27 mein CPI 5.6% rahega aur 2027 tak 2 rate hikes ho sakte hain. IDFC FIRST Bank 4.9% keh raha hai, jabki Goldman Sachs 4.5% aur ADB 6.9% tak ka bhi risk bata rahe hain. Matlab, sabke alag alag views hain.
Oil Shock Se India Ki Economy Aur Rupee Par Pressure
Ye high oil prices sirf inflation nahi badha rahe, balki India ki economy aur Rupee par bhi pressure daal rahe hain. India oil import karta hai, toh price badhne par sidha impact aata hai. Estimate hai ki agar oil prices $10 badhe, toh current account deficit (CAD) 0.4% se 0.5% of GDP tak badh sakta hai. FY27 mein CAD 2.1% of GDP tak ja sakta hai, jo 'Fragile Five' wale time ki yaad dila raha hai. Iske chalte Indian Rupee bhi gir raha hai, aur 95.74 ke aas paas record low bana diya hai dollar ke saamne. Foreign exchange reserves bhi kam ho rahe hain kyunki wo currency stable karne ki koshish kar rahe hain.
Persistent Inflation Aur Policy Limits Ka Risk Badh Raha Hai
Government ne kuch excise duty cuts aur subsidy se logon ko relief dene ki koshish ki hai, par ye zyada time tak sustainable nahi hai. Risk ye hai ki ye badhti hui costs manufacturing aur services sector mein bhi aa sakti hain, jisse core inflation bhi sticky ho jayegi. Supply shocks jaise high oil prices ke against RBI ke tools limited hain, haan woh inflation expectations manage kar sakte hain. Dusre deshon ke comparison mein India ki situation thodi complicated hai.
Aage Ka Outlook Uncertain Hai Volatility Ke Beech
Aage kya hoga ye kehna mushkil hai, sab depend karta hai geopolitical conflicts par aur unke oil markets par impact par. Analysts ka kehna hai ki FY27 mein Brent crude prices $82 se $110 per barrel ke beech mein reh sakte hain. Is volatility se Rupee par pressure aur forex reserves kam hone ka risk bana rahega. Abhi RBI wait and watch mode mein hai, par agar inflation control se bahar hota hai ya Rupee bahut girta hai, toh policy change ho sakti hai. Government ke liye fiscal deficit manage karna aur supply side measures lena bahut important hoga.