Whalesbook
Global Tensions Ka Asar
Sabse bada reason jo dikh raha hai woh hai West Asia mein chal raha conflict. Iski wajah se energy market mein gadbad hai, supply chain mein issues aa rahe hain, aur foreign investors (FIIs) bhi thoda dar gaye hain. Yeh sab factors milkar company ke results par pressure bana rahe hain.
Sectors Mein Badi Chhapai
Jab hum sirf Nifty50 ki baat karte hain, toh profit after tax (PAT) mein around 4.2% ka growth dikh raha hai. Lekin agar hum Banking aur Financial Services (BFSI) ko hata dein, toh yeh growth 3.1% ho jaata hai, aur Oil & Gas ko hatane par 2.9%. Lekin agar hum JM Financial ke data ko dekhein, toh Oil & Gas, IT Services, Metals & Mining, aur Real Estate sectors ne toh kamaal kar diya hai, jahan PAT growth 19% se lekar 48% tak gaya hai! Yeh dikhata hai ki sirf kuch bade Nifty companies hi pressure mein hain.
IT Aur Auto Ne Lagai Race
IT Services sector mein toh paisa ban raha hai, around 12% Y-o-Y growth ka estimate hai. Rupiah ke girne se inki profit margins badh rahi hain. Lekin badi IT companies jaise Infosys aur HCL Technologies FY27 ke liye cautious guidance de rahe hain, growth 1.5% se 6% ke beech hi expect kar rahe hain. Generative AI ka impact aur global uncertainty iski wajah hai.
Automobiles sector bhi zabardast perform kar raha hai, lagbhag 25% Y-o-Y growth dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Demand acchi hai, GST mein fayda mil raha hai, aur passenger vehicles (16.8% Y-o-Y) aur two-wheelers (24.8% Y-o-Y) dono mein volumes badh rahe hain.
Metals & Mining sector bhi 12% Y-o-Y growth dikha raha hai, aur Telecom companies toh 43% Y-o-Y PAT surge expect kar rahi hain, primarily Bharti Airtel ki wajah se.
Pharma Aur Oil Ko Laga Jhatka
Pharmaceuticals sector ke liye yeh quarter thoda mushkil raha hai. PAT mein 24% ki girawat aane ka chance hai, mostly high-margin drugs jaise lenalidomide ke patent expiry hone ki wajah se. Dr. Reddy's, Zydus, Cipla, Sun Pharma jaise companies affected hain.
Oil & Gas sector mein bhi problems hain, kyunki LNG supply mein disruptions aa rahe hain. Strait of Hormuz band hone ki wajah se Petronet LNG aur GAIL jaisi companies ko dikat ho rahi hai.
FIIs Ka Record Outflow
Geopolitical tension ki wajah se FIIs ne Q4 mein lagbhag $15.1 billion beche hain, aur March mein toh record $12.3 billion (around ₹1.14 lakh crore) ka outflow dekha gaya. Iske opposite, DIIs ne FY26 mein $95.8 billion invest kiye hain.
FY27 Outlook Aur Valuation
Ab investors sabse zyada dhyaan denge ki management FY27 ke liye demand prospects ke baare mein kya bolte hain. Cement price increase aur bank NIMs ka stability bhi important hoga. Nifty EPS FY26 ke liye ₹1,083 ke aas paas hai (6.5% growth). FY27 ke liye growth 15.1% aur FY28 ke liye 17.4% forecast hai. Lekin BofA Securities ne FY27 growth forecast 8.5% kar diya hai. Current valuations 18.6x FY27E PE par hain, jo zyada expensive nahi hain par cheap bhi nahi, aur emerging market peers se zyada hain. Yeh sab dekhte hue FY27 mein recovery hogi ya nahi, yeh dekhna hoga.