Whalesbook
Foreign investors ne 2026 ke pehle 4 mahine mein $20 billion se zyada ka maal bech diya hai, jo 2025 ke total $18.9 billion se bhi zyada hai. Isme se lagbhag $19 billion ka outflow Iran conflict badhne ke baad hua, jisne crude oil prices ko asmaan par pahuncha diya. Ye sab geopolitical tension, strong U.S. dollar aur global central banks ki strict policies ki wajah se investors ab emerging markets se safe assets ki taraf bhaag rahe hain. Iska asar ye hua ki Indian rupee ₹95.12 per U.S. dollar ke record low par aa gaya hai. Nifty 50 toh 8.2% aur Sensex 9.8% year-to-date gir chuka hai.
Ab IT sector ki baat karein toh yahan bhi situation aisi hi hai. Around ₹22,000 crore ka paisa foreign investors ne IT stocks se nikaal liya hai. Wajah hai Artificial Intelligence (AI) ka dar. Dusre countries jaise South Korea aur Taiwan jahan AI aur semiconductor ki stories chal rahi hain, wahan paisa aa raha hai, par India ke paas koi clear AI growth story nahi hai. Nifty IT index toh iss saal 25% tak gir gaya hai. Investors ko lagta hai ki AI ki wajah se companies ka revenue kam ho sakta hai aur jobs bhi ja sakti hain. Analysts ka kehna hai ki AI ke chalte next few years mein traditional IT services ke prices 2-3% tak gir sakte hain. India mein Sensex ka P/E ratio around 21.1 hai, jo dikhata hai ki valuations abhi stable hain, par growth ka strong narrative nahi hai.
Ye jo paisa bahar ja raha hai na, isse India par kaafi pressure aa raha hai. High oil prices se current account deficit badh sakta hai, aur rupee girne se investors ka return toh kam hota hi hai, saath mein imported inflation bhi badhti hai. IT sector toh do taraf se maar kha raha hai – global demand uncertain hai aur AI ki wajah se revenues par bhi doubt hai. Jab tak India ki koi solid AI growth story nahi aati, tab tak foreign paisa vapas aana mushkil hai, khaas kar jab U.S. mein interest rates attractive hain. Aur haan, companies ki earnings growth projections bhi itne zabardast nahi hain.
Ek achhi baat ye hai ki domestic institutional investors, jaise mutual funds jo SIPs se lagataar paisa laa rahe hain, woh is outflow ko kuch had tak sambhaal rahe hain. Lekin experts ka kehna hai ki market ko mazboot hone ke liye foreign capital ka wapas aana bahut zaroori hai. Shayad oil price spike temporary ho, par energy imports par India ki nirbharta aur tech mein competition foreign investor ke sentiment ko 2026 tak affect kar sakta hai.