Whalesbook
Ab dekho, situation kya hai. Duniya mein jo geopolitical situation chal rahi hai, especially West Asia mein jo ladai ho rahi hai, usse India ki supply chain mein kaafi gadbad ho rahi hai. Isse sirf mehngai hi nahi badh rahi, balki trade aur paiso ka aana jaana bhi disturb ho sakta hai. Aur upar se, agar El Nino ki wajah se Southwest monsoon thoda kam raha na, toh kheti baadi par bhi bahut bura asar padega aur khane peene ka saman aur bhi mehnga ho jayega.
Government isko sirf problem ki tarah nahi, balki bade changes laane ka mauka dekh rahi hai. IMF ka kehna hai ki India ki GDP growth 6.5% rehne wali hai 2026 tak, lekin global energy aur food prices badhne ki wajah se inflation 4.7% tak jaa sakti hai. Government ka target hai fiscal deficit ko 4.3% of GDP par rakhna 2026-27 mein, aur capital expenditure par kharcha badhate rehna hai.
India apne business ko global level par mazboot karne ke liye US aur EU jaise countries ke saath naye trade deals kar raha hai taaki FDI badhe aur manufacturing hub ban sake. Exports bhi achhe chal rahe hain, especially engineering goods, electronics aur pharma mein. Lekin bahar se saman kharidna (merchandise imports) bhi badh raha hai, jisse trade deficit badh raha hai, khaas kar jab West Asia conflict ki wajah se energy prices high hain. Government infrastructure, labour reforms aur supply chain par focus kar rahi hai. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bhi economy ko stable rakhne mein bada role play kar raha hai.
Sabse badi chinta energy aur raw material ke supply ko lekar hai. West Asia se 50% crude oil aur 80% se zyada LPG aata hai. Agar shipping routes mein dikkat aayi toh urea production aur fertilizer imports par asar padega, jo Kharif season ke liye bahut important hai. Fertilizer subsidy hi ₹2 lakh crore se upar jaa sakti hai, jo budget estimate se 20% zyada hai. 65.8% sulphur jo fertilizer banane ke kaam aata hai, woh bhi West Asia se aata hai. Agar crude oil prices $120 a barrel tak pahunch gaye, toh GDP growth 6% aur inflation 6% tak ja sakti hai.
Phir bhi, experts ka kehna hai ki India 2026 aur 2027 mein sabse tezi se badhne wali badi economy bani rahegi, jiska growth rate 6.5% rehne ka IMF ka andaaza hai. Structural reforms aur apne desh ki demand iske main drivers rahenge.