Whalesbook
Global Market Mein Hungama!
Bhai log, sabse pehle toh ye suno ki West Asia mein chal rahe tensions ke karan global oil prices ekdum se bhadh gayin hain. Brent crude futures aa gaye hain $107.92 per barrel ke aas-paas, aur WTI futures bhi $96.39 par hain. Iski wajah se India jaise desh, jo energy imports par bahut depend karte hain, unke FY27 budget par kaafi pressure aa raha hai. Lagta hai sarkar ko fertilizer aur fuel subsidies par dobara sochna padega.
FY26 Targets Achieved, Par Aage Kya?
Waise toh achhi khabar ye hai ki India ne FY26 ke liye apne most fiscal targets achieve kar liye hain. Tax revenues bhi revised estimates se upar chal rahe hain – customs duty 102%, excise duty 101%, aur Central GST 100.8% tak pahunch gaya hai. Ministries FY27 ke liye apne spending plans par kaam kar rahi hain, jaise normal hota hai.
India Ki Vulnerability: Import Par Dependence
Par yeh stability jyada der tikne wali nahi hai, kyunki India crude oil ka lagbhag 82% aur primary energy ka 40% import karta hai. Isliye jab bhi global prices upar jaati hain, India ka import bill badh jaata hai aur fiscal health par seedha impact padta hai. Aapko yaad hoga, 2014-15 mein bhi oil price shock ne kaafi problem khadi kar di thi.
Numbers Kya Kehte Hain?
Fitch Ratings ka kehna hai ki FY27 mein India ka fiscal deficit target 4.3% se badh kar 4.5% GDP tak ja sakta hai, mainly subsidies badhne ki wajah se. Moody's ne bhi India ki 'Baa3' rating stable rakhi hai, par kaha hai ki deficits, debt aur interest costs hamare peers se zyada hain. Bond yield bhi 6.96% ke aas-paas hai, aur Rupee bhi depreciate ho raha hai, lagbhag $0.0106 per INR, jisse imports aur mehenge ho jayenge.
FY27 ke liye fertilizer subsidy ka estimate ₹1.71 lakh crore hai, aur fuel subsidies ₹12,085 crore ke aas-paas. Agar oil prices aise hi rahi, toh yeh budget kam pad sakta hai. Central government debt ratio abhi lagbhag 81% of GDP hai, jabki goal 2031 tak ise 50% tak laane ka hai.
Toh ab dekhte hain ki sarkar kaise is situation ko handle karti hai. Ek taraf fiscal discipline maintain karna hai, doosri taraf global shocks se bachna hai aur subsidies ko bhi manage karna hai. Yeh ek bada balancing act hone wala hai.