Whalesbook
Dekho bhaiyo aur behno, India ke Current Account Deficit (CAD) par nazar rakho. December quarter mein yeh $13.2 billion ho gaya hai, jo GDP ka 1.3% hai. Pichhle saal yeh $11.3 billion tha. Asal mein, trade gap badh gaya hai, thoda US ko exports kam hone ki wajah se bhi.
Par achhi khabar yeh hai ki April-December ke liye overall deficit kam hua hai, $30.1 billion (GDP ka 1%) ho gaya hai, jabki pichhle saal $36.6 billion (GDP ka 1.3%) tha.
Minister Piyush Goyal ne kaha hai ki government agencies milkar kaam kar rahi hain taaki yeh deficit manage ho sake aur external sector mein stability bani rahe. Goyal sahab ka kehna hai ki India global uncertainties ko economic reform aur strength banane ke mauke ki tarah use kar raha hai.
Sab departments milkar global challenges se nipat rahe hain. Government macroeconomic stability ke liye steps soch rahi hai. Reports bata rahi hain ki FY27 tak CAD 2.3% of GDP tak ja sakta hai, mainly high oil prices ki wajah se. Aur is fiscal year mein Balance of Payments deficit $65 billion hone ka andaaza hai.
US ko exports kam hone se trade gap badha hai. 2024 mein, US ka India ke saath goods trade deficit $46 billion tha. US imports from India 4.5% badhkar $87 billion hui, jabki US exports to India 3.4% badhkar $42 billion hui.
Agar capital inflows trade aur current account deficit ke hisaab se nahi badhe, toh India ki external finances par pressure aa sakta hai. Analysts keh rahe hain ki gold jaise non-essential imports kam karne aur fuel prices adjust karne jaise steps liye ja sakte hain. India ka crude oil import par depend karna hi CAD ka main reason hai.
Lambi avadhi mein CAD kam toh hua hai, par recent quarterly increase aur future projections risks dikha rahe hain. Imported energy, khaas kar crude oil, par nirbharta ek structural weakness hai. Global oil prices agar geopolitical tensions ke kaaran aur badhi, toh foreign exchange reserves par strain aa sakta hai. HSBC ka predict hai ki FY27 mein CAD 2.3% of GDP ho sakta hai, jo FY26 mein estimate 0.9% se zyada hai. Projected wider BoP deficit se Rupee par bhi pressure aa sakta hai, jisse imports mehange honge aur inflation badh sakta hai.
Par India ke paas accha foreign exchange reserves hai, par agar capital inflows badhti hui gap ko cover nahi kar paye toh pressure banega.
Minister Goyal ka inter-agency teamwork par focus aur confidence dikhata hai ki government proactive hai. Non-essential imports kam karna, foreign capital attract karna, aur fuel prices adjust karna – yeh sab possible steps hain. Government ka aim hai ki global uncertainties ko reforms aur acchi supply chains se opportunities mein badla jaye.