Whalesbook
Oil Prices Ki Maar Se Companies Ka Profit Down
Asal mein, oil ab $107-$112 ke aas paas chal raha hai, aur isse India ki companies ke profits pe seedha pressure aa raha hai. Jo companies energy pe bahut depend karti hain, jaise airlines, logistics, aur manufacturing, unki toh loot machi hui hai. Kuch cement stocks bhi girne lage hain kyuki unke operating costs badh gaye hain. Axis Securities toh keh raha hai ki agar oil $100 ke upar raha, toh FY27 ke Q1 se companies ki earnings kam ho jayegi. Is wajah se market mein caution hai aur foreign investors bhi bhag rahe hain. Sirf March 2026 mein $9.6 billion nikal gaye Indian stocks se. Bond market ka bhi yahi haal hai, 10-year bond yield 6.78% pe pahunch gaya hai.
Rupee Gira, RBI Ke Paas Options Kam
Aur yeh badhti oil prices Rupee ko bhi kamzor kar rahi hain. Indian Rupee US Dollar ke saamne record low pe aa gaya hai, lagbhag 93.95 ke aas paas. Iski do wajah hain - ek toh tel khareedne ke liye zyada dollars chahiye, aur doosra, paisa desh se bahar ja raha hai. RBI currency ko stable karne ki koshish kar rahi hai, par oil ki yeh situation Rupee ko aur girayegi aur foreign investment ko bhi rokegi. Jo inflation demand se aati hai, usse RBI interest rates badha kar control kar sakti hai, par yeh supply wala shock hai. Isliye RBI ke paas zyada options nahi hain rate badhane ke. Isse bond yields shayad stable ho jayen, par inflation ka risk bana hua hai. India ke 10-year government bonds baaki emerging markets se achhe returns de rahe hain, par US Treasury yields aur domestic issues ki wajah se Indian yields 6.75% ke aas paas rahne ki ummeed hai.
India Ka Import Par Bharosa Badha Raha Risk
India 85% se zyada crude oil import karta hai, toh jab bhi global prices badhti hain, seedha domestic inflation, company profits aur government ke budget pe asar padta hai. Axis Securities ne phir se kaha hai ki $100 ke upar oil prices FY27 Q1 se earnings growth ko risk mein daal degi. Rupee ka girna, paisa bahar jaana aur imports ke liye zyada dollars ki demand - yeh sab milkar cheezon ko aur mehnga kar raha hai aur current account deficit badha raha hai. BofA Global Research toh keh raha hai ki Rupee June 2026 tak 94 ho jayega. Jab inflation supply-driven hota hai, toh RBI ke paas interest rate badhane ki zyada power nahi hoti, jisse inflation aur girte Rupee dono ko fight karna mushkil ho jata hai. Is situation mein government ke borrowing costs bhi badh sakte hain kyuki bond yields upar hain, jo economic activity ko slow kar sakta hai. Aur haan, renewable energy badh rahi hai, par abhi bhi over 70% bijli coal se banti hai, matlab economy abhi bhi oil price swings ke liye sensitive hai.
Aage Kya? Volatility Aur Pressure
Aage kya hoga? Analysts bol rahe hain ki Middle East mein jo chal raha hai aur uska oil prices par asar, isse market mein volatility bani rahegi. Kuchh logon ka kehna hai ki bond yields shayad stable ho jayein, par abhi kaafi uncertain hai. RBI shayad liquidity manage karne aur growth support karne par focus karegi, kyuki rate hike karne ka option kam hai. UBS ka forecast hai ki USD/INR 2026 ke end tak 94 ho jayega, matlab Rupee par pressure rahega. Companies apne badhte kharchon ko kaise manage karti hain aur profit margins kaise maintain karti hain, yeh dekhna hoga. Waise, reports keh rahi hain ki India ki GDP growth achhi rahegi, UBS aur Goldman Sachs jaise log 6.6% se 7.7% tak ka growth forecast kar rahe hain FY27 ke liye. Par yeh growth bhi high energy prices se aane wale inflation se pressure mein hai.