Whalesbook
Cement aur Steel ne kiya Core Sector ko boost!
Dekho, April 2026 mein India ke core infrastructure sectors ne 1.7% ka expansion record kiya hai, jo ki pichhle do mahine ka sabse accha number hai. Is growth mein sabse bada haath cement aur steel ka raha, jinka production 9.4% aur 6.2% respectively badha hai. Electricity generation mein bhi 4.1% ka sudhar dekha gaya. Ye core sectors industrial production index (IIP) ka 40% se zyada hissa hain, toh inka grow karna zaroori hai.
Lekin sab taraf khushkhabri nahi hai...
Overall growth acchi lag rahi hai, par andar se dekho toh asli picture kuch aur hai. Coal mein 8.7%, crude oil mein 3.9%, natural gas mein 4.3%, refinery products mein 0.5% aur fertilizers mein 8.6% ki kami aayi hai. Matlab, energy aur zaruri items banane wale sectors abhi bhi pressure mein hain.
ICRA Ltd ke Senior Economist Rahul Agrawal ka kehna hai ki West Asia mein chal rahe tensions ki wajah se bhi kuch sectors mein problem aa rahi hai. Isse economic activity par bhi asar pad raha hai aur global energy supply ko lekar bhi uncertainty hai.
IIP growth toh aayegi, par economy ko challenges hain
Experts ko lagta hai ki April ke core sector data se upcoming Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth mein help milegi. India Ratings & Research ne lagbhag 5% growth ka andaza lagaya hai. Unki prediction hai ki May 2026 mein bhi core sector mein 3% aas-paas growth rah sakti hai, kyuki pichle saal ka base kam tha aur fertilizer output mein bhi sudhar ki ummeed hai.
Par ICRA ke Rahul Agrawal ne warning di hai ki jab 8 mein se 5 sectors gir rahe hain, toh overall economy ke liye situation challenging hai, aur West Asia crisis ki wajah se problems badh sakti hain.
West Asia Crisis ka bada game!
External factors ka asar ab India ki economy par dikh raha hai. West Asia mein geopolitical tensions ki wajah se GDP growth forecasts kam kiye ja rahe hain. India Ratings & Research ko ab lagta hai ki FY27 mein India ki GDP 6.7% grow karegi, jo pehle 7.6% thi. Iska reason hai high crude prices, geopolitical instability, aur El Nino ka potential impact.
ICRA ne bhi apna FY27 GDP growth forecast 6.2% kar diya hai, kyunki West Asia crisis se crude oil prices badh rahi hain. Crisil ne bhi warning di hai ki West Asia mein lamba conflict chalne se economy par pressure hai, energy prices badh rahi hain, trade mein dikkat aa rahi hai, aur supply chain issues se growth kam ho sakti hai aur inflation badh sakta hai.
UN DESA ne bhi India ka 2026 growth estimate ghata kar 6.4% kar diya hai. Unhone kaha hai ki West Asia crisis se inflation badh raha hai aur energy import karne wale nations ki growth kam ho rahi hai. India crude oil import karta hai, isliye fuel prices badhne se woh zyada vulnerable hai. Pure FY 2025-26 mein, 8 core industries ka cumulative growth 2.7% raha.
Future growth ke liye mile-jule signals
April mein core sector ka data industrial activity ke liye accha signal de raha hai, par energy aur commodity sectors mein jo badi girawat hui hai, aur upar se geopolitical risks, ye sab milkar bade challenges paida kar rahe hain. India Ratings & Research aur ICRA ke forecasts batate hain ki aane wale fiscal year ke liye growth expectations kam ho sakti hain. Ye dikhata hai ki Indian economy global energy prices aur regional stability par kitni depend karti hai.