Whalesbook
IMF Ki Najrein Gadi Hui Hain:
International Monetary Fund (IMF) ab global economy ke liye apni pehle wali optimistic forecast par bharosa nahi kar raha. Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva ne bola hai ki jo scenario pehle socha tha ki Middle East conflict jaldi khatam ho jayega, woh ab kaam nahi kar raha. Us scenario mein global growth 3.1% aur inflation 4.4% rehti.
Abhi ki situation, jisme ladai chal rahi hai aur oil prices $100 per barrel se upar hain, iska matlab hai ki IMF ka "adverse scenario" matlab bura wala scenario ab sach ho raha hai. Iska matlab hai ki 2026 tak global growth 2.5% ho jayegi aur inflation 5.4% tak pahunch jayegi.
Aur bura haal tab hoga agar conflict 2027 tak chala gaya aur oil prices $125 per barrel ho gaye. Tab global growth sirf 2% reh jayegi aur inflation 5.8% tak pahunch sakti hai. Georgieva ne warn kiya hai ki agar prices aise hi badhte rahe toh logon ki expectations change ho jayengi, jisse central banks ke liye inflation ko control karna mushkil ho jayega.
Iska effect supply chains par bhi dikh raha hai. Fertilizer prices already 30-40% badh gaye hain, aur food prices 3-6% tak badh sakte hain.
Oil Price Ka Dhamaka:
History dekho toh oil price ka badhna hamesha inflation aur economy slow karne ka bada reason raha hai. 1970s mein bhi aisa hi hua tha. Abhi bhi agar Strait of Hormuz (jahan se 20% global crude oil jaata hai) mein problem hui toh bade scale par shortage ho sakti hai. Isse sirf energy nahi, agriculture aur manufacturing bhi affect hogi kyunki fertilizer aur sulfur jaise cheezein bhi istemal hoti hain.
Central Banks Ki Pareshani:
Central banks ke liye geopolitical tensions ab sabse badi chinta ban gayi hai, inflation se bhi upar. Is uncertainty mein monetary policy banana mushkil ho raha hai. Jo market expect kar raha tha ki 2026 ke second half mein rate cuts honge, woh ab unclear ho gaya hai. Policymakers ko mushkil decision lena padega: agar woh supply-driven inflation ko fight karenge toh slow growth aur slow ho jayegi, aur agar prices ko badhne denge toh log expect karne lagenge ki inflation hamesha high hi rahegi. Fed bhi ab cautious ho gaya hai aur bol raha hai ki rates high rah sakte hain.
Market Reaction:
Pehle jab oil prices badhe hain, tab S&P 500 jaise indices mein average 7% tak ki girawat aayi hai. Emerging markets par bhi zyada asar padta hai kyunki unhe oil import karna padta hai aur unka debt dollar mein hota hai.
Baaki Institutions Kya Keh Rahi Hain?
IMF ke alawa bhi kai institutions global growth slowdown ki baat kar rahi hain. World Bank 3.0%, UN DESA 2.7%, aur Morgan Stanley 3.2% growth expect kar rahe hain. Sabka kehna hai ki slowdown aayega, par IMF ne stagflation aur supply disruption ke risk par zyada focus kiya hai.