Whalesbook
Sone ka Bhav Girne se Reserves Par Gira Asar
Bhai log, asal mein hua yeh hai ki gold ke bhav poori duniya mein bahut tezi se neeche gire. Iska seedha asar India ke forex reserves par pada. Sirf gold ki value mein $13.5 billion ki kami aayi, jiske baad gold ab $117.2 billion ka rah gaya hai. Yeh itna bada drop tha ki jitna foreign currency assets mein $2.1 billion ka increase hua tha, woh bhi iske saamne kam pad gaya. Abhi total reserves $698.35 billion ho gaye hain. Yeh dikhata hai ki gold ke rates kaise reserves ko affect karte hain.
RBI Ne Bhaga Daudi Lagai Jab Rupee Gira 94 Ke Paar
Aur isi beech, jab Indian Rupee US Dollar ke saamne 94 ka level tod kar neeche girne laga (lagbhag 94.7985 par chal raha tha), toh Reserve Bank of India (RBI) ko beech mein aana pada. RBI ne banking system mein ₹65,322 crore daal diye taaki liquidity manage ho sake. Yeh sab advance tax aur GST payments ki wajah se liquidity tight ho rahi thi.
Rupee Girne Ke Peeche Kya Hai?
Rupee par pressure bahut zyada hai. Ek toh world mein chal rahe US-Iran conflict ka dar hai, aur upar se Brent crude oil ke bhav $110 ke paar chal rahe hain. India tel khareedne ke liye bahaut sara dollar use karta hai, toh jab tel mehnga hota hai toh rupee apne aap kamzor ho jata hai. Is saal FY26 mein rupee lagbhag 9% aur pichhle saal 10.91% gir chuka hai. Iske alawa, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) bhi March mein $10 billion se zyada ka paisa nikaal chuke hain, jisse currency aur capital accounts par pressure ban raha hai.
Aage Kya Ho Sakta Hai?
Agarcheh saal-dar-saal reserves badhe hue hain ($39.5 billion ka increase), lekin gold ke bhav mein itni badi giraavat aur rupee ka neeche jaana chinta ka vishay hai. RBI ab currency ko defend karne ke bajaye uski excessive volatility ko manage kar raha hai, lekin agar rupee kamzor hota raha toh reserves kam karne pad sakte hain. Global interest rates ka bhi abhi high rehne ka chance hai, jisse sabko lagta hai ki 2026 mein US rate cuts nahi honge, shayad hike ho jaaye. Overall reserves ka buffer toh abhi bhi accha hai, par gold jaise assets ki price swing se headline number kaise badlega, yeh dekhna hoga.