Whalesbook
Market mein Khushi ki Lehar!
Tuesday ko markets mein ekdum se bahaar aa gayi. President Trump ne announce kiya ki US aur Iran ke beech 2 hafte ka conditional ceasefire ho gaya hai. Isse sab geopolitical tensions khatam ho gaye aur investors ka mood ban gaya. US stock futures toh seedha 1.9% upar bhag gaye. Dow futures 47,730 par pahunch gaye, S&P 500 futures 2.25% badh kar 6,804 aur Nasdaq-100 futures 2.8% tezi se 25,057 par aa gaye. Yahi nahi, S&P 500 index bhi 2.63% upar 6,791 points par trade kar raha tha.
Iske saath hi, oil prices mein bhi badi giraawat aayi. Weeks se jo supply disruption ka darr tha, woh kam ho gaya. Brent crude futures 13% neeche gir kar lagbhag $95.36 per barrel par aa gaya. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures bhi 15% gir kar $96.31 per barrel ho gaya. March ke shuru mein toh WTI $119.47 aur Brent $119.50 tak pahunch gaye the. Sona aur chandi bhi bikhre, gold 3.1% badh kar $4,850 per ounce aur silver 4% se zyada $76 per ounce ke aas-paas pahunch gaye.
Inflation ka Game Abhi Baaki Hai!
Market toh khush hai par asli baat yeh hai ki inflation ka scene thoda complex hai. Analysts keh rahe hain ki crude oil sasta hone ka matlab yeh nahi ki inflation turant kam ho jayega. Vested Finance ke CEO, Viram Shah ke according, refined fuel supply chains ko normal hone mein mahine lag sakte hain. Isliye, filhaal headline inflation shayad thoda theek ho jaye, par fuel aur logistics ka asar dheere-dheere dikhega. OECD ne pehle hi warning di thi ki 2026 mein US mein inflation 4.2% tak ja sakta hai energy prices ki wajah se. Dallas Fed ki study ke mutabik, Strait of Hormuz ke band hone se bhi inflation 0.35 percentage points badh sakta tha. Aur Fed ka favorite inflation gauge, Core PCE, January 2026 tak 3.1% par hi atka hua hai, jo Fed ke 2% target se kaafi door hai.
Sirf Thoda Rukna Hai, Resolution Nahi!
Abhi jo market mein khushi hai, woh ekdum pakki nahi hai. Yeh ceasefire toh bas ek chota sa break hai, asal problem ka solution nahi hai. Markets abhi bhi kisi bhi negative news se react kar sakte hain aur volatility wapas aa sakti hai. Middle East se aane wali khabrein aur US President ke statements market ko control karenge. March mein jo oil prices 50% se zyada badhe the, woh reasons abhi bhi wahi hain. Yeh rally sirf investors ke extreme risks kam karne ki wajah se hai, na ki economy ke acche hone ki wajah se. Agar koi bhi diplomatic efforts mein gadbad hui toh market mein phir se girawat aa sakti hai.
Policy Ki Baat
Market ab FOMC meeting minutes ka wait kar raha hai jo April 8, 2026 ko aaye hain. March 17-18 ki meeting ke minutes se Fed ke decisions par aur clarity milegi, khaas kar inflation aur interest rates ko lekar. March meeting mein Fed ne interest rate 3.50%-3.75% ke range mein rakha tha. Unki projections mein 2026 ke liye sirf ek rate cut dikhaya gaya hai. Governor Stephen Miran ne dissent kiya tha aur ek rate cut ka support kiya tha. Fed Chair Jerome Powell ne kaha tha ki uncertainty zyada hai aur sab data par depend karega. Minutes mein yeh bhi dekha jayega ki Fed oil prices aur geopolitical issues ko kaise dekh raha hai.