Whalesbook
Suno sab, abhi duniya mein trade ka scene hi pura change ho gaya hai. Pichle 200 saal se hum log sirf ye dekhte the ki kahaan sabse sasta kaam milega, yaani David Ricardo ki comparative advantage wali theory. Par ab WTO, UNCTAD aur IMF jaise log bol rahe hain ki 2026 tak global trade growth kam ho jayega. WTO ka kehna hai ki merchandise trade jo 4.6% thi, woh 2026 mein 1.9% tak gir sakti hai. Aur iska reason paisa nahi, balki abhi chal raha geopolitics ka khel aur countries ke beech badhti hui anban hai.
Ab McKinsey ne bhi issi pe research kiya hai. Unka kehna hai ki ab sirf cost pe focus nahi hai. Ab countries ka alliance, tech pe control, tariff ka risk aur political trust ye sab cheezein zyada matter karti hain. Ye globalization ka end nahi hai, balki ek big restructuring hai. Sabse bada driver bann gaya hai Artificial Intelligence (AI). AI se related cheezein, jaise semiconductors aur data center ka saman, 2025 mein one-third tak trade growth ko boost karega. Isse Asia mein manufacturing badh rahi hai, par critical components mein supply chain ki problem bhi aa rahi hai. Ab strategy ban gayi hai: jahaan trust ho wahaan produce karo, jahaan se mile wahaan se source karo, aur jahaan allow ho wahaan sell karo.
Ab India ke liye kya scene hai? Jab companies China ko alternative dhoondh rahi hain, India ke paas mauka hai electronics, pharma, specialty chemicals aur digital services mein apna share badhane ka. April-February 2025-26 mein India ka total export (merchandise + services) $790.86 billion cross kar gaya hai, jo 5.79% zyada hai. Services export bhi achha perform kar raha hai. Par yaaar, hurdles bhi hain. India mein logistics cost abhi bhi 13-14% of GDP hai, jabki global average sirf 8-9% hai. Infrastructure aur supply chain mein problem hai. Regulations aur compliance bhi tough hai. Free trade agreements bhi kam hain.
Aur sirf India hi nahi, Vietnam, Mexico aur UAE jaise countries bhi global supply chain mein apni jagah bana rahe hain. Vietnam mein low labor cost aur US/China se achhe links hain. Mexico ne nearshoring se fayda uthaya hai. UAE ek trading hub ban gaya hai.
Lekin iss naye game mein risks bhi hain. Global trade par conflicts, trade wars aur protectionism ka pressure hai. AI chip manufacturing ka control Asia mein concentrated hai, jo future mein problem ban sakta hai. Jab geopolitics economics se upar ho jaye, toh puraane theories kaam nahi aati. India ke liye risk ye hai ki agar logistics aur regulatory issues solve nahi kiye, toh mauka haath se nikal sakta hai. Aur badi geopolitical shocks bhi global trade ko disturb kar sakte hain.