Whalesbook
Is market ki giravat ke peeche kai reasons hain jo abhi pata chal rahe hain.
Geopolitics ki baat karein toh West Asia mein badhti hui tensions ne oil prices ko udaan di hai aur supply chains ko disturb kar diya hai. Yeh India jaise import par depend karne wale desh ke liye afi risky hai. Iska impact sirf oil tak nahi, balki fertilizers jaise zaruri commodities par bhi pada hai. Manufacturing sector bhi slow hua, jiska Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) March mein 45 mahine mein sabse neeche chala gaya. Core industries bhi March mein 0.4% contract hui.
Aur fir aaya IT sector ka pressure. India ke market cap mein yeh sector kafi bada hai aur ab iske saamne nayi challenges hain. TCS jaise badi IT firms ne kamzor results diye aur aage ke liye bhi koi khaas umeed nahi dikhai. TCS toh pichle 20 saalon mein pehli baar annual revenue decline report kiya hai. Clients bhi economy ki uncertainty aur AI ke impact ki wajah se kharcha karne mein soch rahe hain. Yeh sab dekh kar Nifty IT index toh ek hi din mein 5.13% gir gaya tha.
Khaas companies ki baat karein toh TCS ne ₹66,699.44 crore ka nuksaan jhela, Reliance Industries ne ₹50,670.34 crore ka. HDFC Bank, LIC, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, aur Larsen & Toubro bhi is giravat mein shaamil the, jahan collective loss ₹2 lakh crore se zyada tha. Par haan, Hindustan Unilever, State Bank of India, aur Bajaj Finance ne thodi resilience dikhai aur unka value badha bhi.
Valuation metrics bhi mix hain. TCS ka P/E ratio apne peers se kam hai, jabki ICICI Bank aur HDFC Bank reasonable valuations par hain. State Bank of India toh aur bhi attractive lag raha hai. LIC ka P/E bhi kaafi low hai. Par Hindustan Unilever, Larsen & Toubro aur Bajaj Finance thoda premium par trade ho rahe hain. Bharti Airtel bhi moderate range mein hai.
Waise, aise geopolitical events se market mein temporary volatility aati hai, aur aksar 6 se 12 mahine mein recovery ho jati hai, agar bade macroeconomic issues na ho toh. India ke paas abhi accha forex reserve hai, jo pehle ke mukable behtar position mein rakhta hai.
Abhi ke liye biggest risks kya hain? Geopolitical instability aur sector-specific problems. West Asia ka conflict sirf oil nahi, LPG aur fertilizers jaise zaruri cheezon ki shortage bhi create kar raha hai, jo manufacturing aur agriculture ko hit karega. IT sector mein toh bada shift aa raha hai, AI purani services ko affect kar sakta hai aur client spending already low hai. Wipro jaise companies ne toh negative revenue growth guidance di hai. Kuch companies jaise Bajaj Finance, high multiples par trade ho rahi hain aur unka interest coverage ratio bhi kam hai. Hindustan Unilever mein bhi pichle 5 saalon se sales growth kam dikhi hai aur P/E ratio industry se upar hai.
Aage kya hoga? Experts ki rai alag alag hai. IT sector ka outlook cautious hai. Lekin kuch reports mein recovery ke signs bhi dikh rahe hain. IMF ne India ki economy 6.5% grow karne ka forecast kiya hai. RBI ka kehna hai ki domestic economy strong hai, par West Asia ka conflict inflation aur growth ko affect kar sakta hai energy prices badhne ki wajah se. Market ka future mainly West Asia crisis kitna chalta hai aur IT sector mein AI adoption aur client recovery kitni jaldi hoti hai, is par depend karega.