Whalesbook
Yaar, abhi jo global economic scene chal raha hai na, woh thoda complicated ho gaya hai. Geopolitical rivalries itni badh gayi hain ki pehle wala trading system toot raha hai. Is situation mein, EU, India, Brazil jaise countries jinka economic level beech mein aata hai, woh apni interests save karna chahte hain. Matlab, woh nahi chahte ki demand, supply ya technology ko 'weapon' ki tarah istemal karein. Isliye, sab milkar ek strong group banane ki soch rahe hain.
Ab iske liye na, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ko platform banaya ja raha hai. Already 12 countries iska hissa hain jaise Japan, Australia, Canada, UK. Ab EU, Indonesia, South Korea bhi interested hain. Agar India, Brazil aur Philippines bhi jud gaye na, toh yeh pact poora game changer ho jayega. India aur EU iske main pillars banenge, jo doosre bade powers ko balance karega jo global commerce ko disturb kar rahe hain.
Agar yeh alliance ban gayi na, toh economic terms mein yeh bahut hi bada player hoga! Socho, isme 13 G20 members honge, jo 45 percent global GDP aur 1/3rd se zyada global trade handle karenge. Jab iski population ki baat karein toh yeh 3 billion se zyada log, matlab lagbhag 40 percent humanity ho gayi! Projections ke hisaab se, yeh bloc 2026 tak 40 percent global GDP growth drive kar sakta hai. Aur India toh bhai akela 17 percent growth dega, aur 2030 tak toh lagbhag 20-25 percent global GDP growth India se hi aayega. Poora bloc 2030 tak 50 percent global economic growth control kar sakta hai. Paisa hi paisa!
Is alliance ka ek aur mast point yeh hai ki yeh emerging economies ki growth aur population ko mature countries ki advanced technology aur paisa (capital) ke saath jodega. Business ko scale, expertise aur new ideas milenge. Supply chain ko manipulate hone se rokne mein help karega. Digital duniya mein bhi apna ek alag stand banayenge, US aur China ke tech giants ko challenge karenge. Aur WTO, World Bank jaise important institutions ko bhi revive karne mein madad milegi.
Haan, sab kuch itna hi aasan nahi hai. Iske liye sabko thoda compromise karna padega. Labour standards, environment rules, digital trade, IP rights jaise sensitive topics par 'Grand Bargains' karne honge. Jo developed countries hain, unko emerging economies ki requirements ko samajhna padega aur thoda flexible rehna padega. Jaise India-UK aur India-EU ke Free Trade Agreements dikha rahe hain ki yeh possible hai.
India ka role ismein bahut important hone wala hai. India apni badhti economy aur tech capabilities ke saath is alliance ko shape karega. Yeh ek tarah se India ke historical non-aligned movement jaisa ho gaya, jahan woh kisi bade power ke influence mein nahi aayenge. India is alliance ko lead karke middle powers ko ek naya platform dega coercion resist karne ka. Waise bhi, India already kai CPTPP members ke saath trade deals kar raha hai, toh uska judna ek natural step lag raha hai. Iske global impact bade ho sakte hain.
Lekin ek side, kuch Challenges bhi hain. Emerging aur developed economies ke priorities alag hain, toh agreements mushkil ho sakte hain. US aur China ka influence bhi ek factor hai, jismein yeh alliance fans na jaaye. Agreements ko implement karna bhi ek bada kaam hoga alag-alag systems mein. Aur jab national interests ki baat aati hai, toh koi bhi protectionist ban sakta hai. India ya kisi bhi leader ke liye itni badi group ko manage karna bahut difficult hoga. Aur US/China ke tech giants ko challenge karna bhi aasan nahi.
Agar yeh sab successfully ho gaya, toh duniya ka economic aur geopolitical map poori tarah badal jayega. Ek zyada equitable global order banega jahan cooperation aur mutual interest pe focus hoga, na ki fragmentation aur conflict par. Is bloc ki success isi baat par depend karegi ki woh apne andar ki tensions ko manage kar paaye aur sab members ko fayda de paaye.