Whalesbook
Inflation ka Bhoot wapas aa gaya, Fed ki policy badli!
Market mein Federal Reserve ki policy ko lekar poori soch badal gayi hai. Saal ki shuruat mein lag raha tha ki rates kam honge, par ab rate hike hone ki chances badh rahi hain. Iska reason hai inflation data jo pehle ki predictions se kaafi alag aa raha hai.
April mein Consumer Price Index (CPI) 3.8% ho gaya, jo 3 saal mein sabse zyada hai. Producer Price Index (PPI) bhi 6% badh gaya, jo 2022 ke baad sabse bada jump hai. Ye numbers dikha rahe hain ki inflation pehle socha tha usse zyada persistent hai.
Fed tight karega policy? Economy sambhal legi?
Badhti inflation ki wajah se Federal Reserve mushkil position mein hai. Ho sakta hai unko interest rates badhane padein aur market mein paisa kam karna pade. Lekin achhi baat ye hai ki economy abhi bhi mazboot lag rahi hai. Strong jobs market aur overall economic health Fed ko rate badhane ka mauka de rahi hai bina turant recession fears ke.
TradeStation ke Global Head of Market Strategy, David Russell, ne kaha, "Rate hikes wapas table par aa gaye hain. Policymakers ko lagta hai ki labor market stable hai, aur zyada log inflation risk dekh rahe hain."
Hawkish stance ke ishaare!
Kai signals hain jo dikha rahe hain ki Federal Reserve rate hike ki taraf jhuk raha hai. FOMC meeting ke minutes se pata chala ki most members ko lagta hai ki rates badhane padenge agar inflation 2% target se upar rehti hai.
Bolvin Wealth Management Group ki President, Gina Bolvin, ne kaha, "Fed minutes ne markets ko yaad dilaya ki inflation abhi bhi main concern hai – aur agar price pressures aise hi rahe toh rate hikes table par hain."
CME FedWatch tool ke hisab se, ab 50% se zyada participants December 2026 tak rate increase expect kar rahe hain. Ismein 41% chance 0.25% hike ka hai aur lagbhag 17% log 0.50% ya usse zyada badhotri expect kar rahe hain.
Bond markets bhi investors ki badhti chinta dikha rahe hain. Yields kai saal ke highs par pahunch gaye hain. 10-year Treasury yield 4.68% par pahunch gaya, jo 16 mahine ka peak hai, aur 30-year yield 5.2% par pahunch gaya, jo July 2007 ke baad sabse high hai. Ye movements future rate hikes aur potential government fiscal pressures ko reflect karte hain.
Naye leadership ka challenge
Naye leadership ke saath, Federal Reserve ko persistent inflation ka samna karna pad raha hai. Former Chair Jerome Powell abhi bhi board mein hain, lekin naye leadership ki strategy par focus hai. President Trump ne kaha hai ki woh autonomy de sakte hain, jisse pehle jaisi public disagreements kam ho sakti hain.
Rising yields ke bawajood market performance
Economic shifts ke bawajood, U.S. stock markets jaise S&P 500 aur Nasdaq Composite is saal record highs par pahunche hain. Lekin, badhti bond yields ek bada risk hain, khaas kar technology aur growth stocks ke liye, jo higher borrowing costs aur valuation mein girawat ke liye sensitive hote hain. Future inflation data aur geopolitical events, jaise Iran mein conflict, yeh decide karne mein ahim honge ki rate hikes ya cuts zyada likely hain.