Whalesbook
Fed Ne Rates Nahi Badhaye, Par Tension Hai!
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ki meeting khatam hui aur unhone federal funds rate ko 3.50%-3.75% par unchanged rakha hai. Ye teesri baar hai jab Fed ne rates hold kiye hain.
Asal mein, Iran War jaisi global tensions badh rahi hain, jisse Brent crude oil ke prices $120 per barrel tak pahunch gaye hain. FOMC ne kaha ki global events se uncertainty badh rahi hai, isliye woh koi jaldi policy change nahi karenge. March mein inflation 3.3% tha, par Fed ko lagta hai ki yeh supply side issues hain, jin par current tools ka zyada asar nahi hota.
GIFT Nifty par markets ne yeh global news absorb kar li hai.
Duniya Bhar Ke Central Banks Bhi Pareshaan
Fed ka yeh decision duniya bhar ke central banks ka trend dikha raha hai. Sab log inflation ko lekar kaafi cautious hain.
European Central Bank (ECB) bhi deposit rate 2.00% par hold kar sakta hai, par June mein hike ka signal de raha hai kyunki eurozone inflation energy costs ki wajah se 2.9% tak pahunch sakta hai. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ne policy rate 0.75% par rakha hai, par 2026 tak inflation ka forecast badha kar 2.8% kar diya hai. BoJ mein 3 members toh rate hike ke favour mein the!
Basically, sab jagah high rates ka environment lag raha hai, demand nahi, balki supply shock ki wajah se.
India Mein Bhi Imported Inflation Ka Khatra
India mein RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra ne repo rate 5.25% par rakha hai aur stance neutral hai. Par Fed ka continue hold aur crude oil ka mahanga hona, India mein imported inflation ka pressure badha raha hai.
CapitalXB ke Ajitabh Bharti ne bhi kaha hai ki Fed ka approach global energy prices ki volatility ko ek bada threat maanta hai. Isse RBI ko Rupee ko bachane ke liye rates high rakhne pad sakte hain, agar US dollar strong hua toh.
RBI ne FY2026-27 ke liye CPI inflation 4.6% predict kiya hai, par agar commodity prices badhti rahi toh yeh figure aur upar ja sakta hai.
Fed Mein Leadership Change Bhi Hai Uncertainty Ka Reason
Fed ki policy decision par internal disagreement bhi tha, jismein 4 officials majority ke khilaaf the – yeh 1992 ke baad sabse bada split hai.
Ek aur anokhi baat yeh hai ki Jerome Powell chair ka term khatam hone ke baad bhi Fed Board of Governors mein rahenge, jo 1948 ke baad pehli baar ho raha hai. Yeh continuity dega.
Lekin, yeh incoming chair Kevin Warsh ke liye ek tricky situation hai, jinka confirmation abhi pending hai. Unke communication mein changes policy mein aur uncertainty la sakte hain.
Challenge: Supply-Driven Inflation Se Kaise Ladenge?
Sabse bada risk policymakers ko yeh hai ki inflation geopolitical supply disruptions se ho raha hai, na ki strong consumer demand se. Monetary policy tools in external shocks par kam effective hote hain.
Agar high energy aur commodity prices se long-term inflation expectations ban gayi, toh central banks ko growth slow karne ke risk par bhi restrictive policies lambe time tak chalani padengi. ECB ko inflation aur recession ke beech balance karna padega.
India ke liye, high oil prices Rupee aur price stability ke liye threat hain, jisse RBI ko tight stance rakhna pad sakta hai, despite FY2026-27 ke liye projected GDP growth 6.9% hone ke bawajood.
Aage Kya? High Rates Chalne Ke Asar Hain
Aage bhi high energy prices aur inflation dikh raha hai. Isliye global central banks ko restrictive rates maintain karne padenge.
Fed ke next moves economic data par depend karenge. India ke liye, RBI imported inflation aur currency stability ko prioritize karega. Current rate policy maintain ho sakti hai.
Market participants central bank communication aur economic indicators ko closely follow karenge yeh janne ke liye ki yeh restrictive monetary policy kab tak chalegi.