US mein inflation **3.7%** tak pahunch gayi hai, lekin Fed Chair Kevin Warsh ki 'no-clear-guidance' policy ne investors ko tension mein daal diya hai. Fed officials ke aapas mein hi alag-alag views hain, jisse market mein volatility badh rahi hai.
Inflation ka data aur Fed ki confusion
US economy mein inflation ka data 3.7% par aa gaya hai, aur core inflation 2.6% par hai. Normally, aise time par central bank ko clear hona chahiye, lekin Fed Chair Kevin Warsh ne future policy par koi bhi saaf signal dene se mana kar diya hai. Is 'forward guidance' na milne ki wajah se investors ab andazay laga rahe hain ki aage kya hoga.
Conflicting signals se market pareshaan
Fed ke andar hi unity ki kami dikh rahi hai. New York Fed ke John Williams keh rahe hain ki thoda wait karna chahiye, wahi Dallas Fed ki Lorie Logan 50-basis-point ke hike ki baat kar rahi hain. Aur toh aur, Cleveland Fed ki Beth Hammack ka kehna hai ki chhote-chhote adjustments zyada behtar rahenge. Jab leadership ka 'reaction function' hi clear nahi hoga, toh market mein swings toh aane hi hain.
Investors ko kyun darr lag raha hai?
Market mein 30% probability lagayi ja rahi hai ki October 27 ki meeting mein rate hike ho sakta hai. Agar rates badhte hain, toh companies ke liye borrowing cost badhegi aur unka profit margin pressure mein aa sakta hai. Mervyn King ki task force ab naye suggestions par kaam kar rahi hai, lekin credibility ka test toh October 27 ko hi hoga. Tab tak investors ko taiyaar rehna chahiye, kyunki Fed ke agle kadam ka asar global markets par seedha padne wala hai.