Whalesbook
Middle East mein jo tension chal rahi hai, uska asar ab seedha hamare pocket par dikh raha hai. Oil aur gas ke prices itne badh gaye hain ki March mein inflation kaafi upar chala gaya hai. Iski wajah se central banks ke liye normal policies par wapas aana mushkil ho raha hai.
Economists keh rahe hain ki March mein Consumer Price Index (CPI) 1% tak badh sakta hai, jo ki 2022 ke baad sabse bada single-month jump hai. Ye sab petrol ke rates badhne se hua hai, jo lagbhag $1 per gallon badh gaye. Ab national average petrol ka rate $4 per gallon ke paar ho gaya hai. Brent crude oil toh $120 per barrel ke bhi upar chala gaya tha.
Aur ye toh sirf energy prices ki baat hai. Jo 'core' inflation hai (jisme food aur energy ke prices exclude hote hain), wo bhi kam nahi ho raha. Ye 0.3% badhne ka chance hai. Fed ka jo preferred measure hai, core PCE, February mein 0.4% badha tha aur lagta hai March mein bhi ye 2.5-2.6% ke aas paas hi rahega. Matlab, underlying inflation abhi bhi pakdi hui hai.
Sirf U.S. hi nahi, poori duniya mein yahi haal hai. OECD keh raha hai ki 2026 tak G20 countries mein inflation average 4.0% rahega. Europe mein bhi March mein inflation 2.5% ho gaya hai, jo ki January 2025 ke baad sabse high hai, energy costs 4.9% badhne ki wajah se. Is global pressure ki wajah se kai central banks ne rate cuts rok diye hain.
Federal Reserve ne March mein interest rates ko 3.50%-3.75% ke beech rakha tha. Ab market mein ye lag raha hai ki 2026 mein shayad ek hi rate cut ho payega, ya shayad kam ya bilkul bhi na ho. Kuch log toh ye bhi keh rahe hain ki kuch banks rate badha bhi sakte hain!
Ye situation 'stagflation' ka risk badha rahi hai – matlab jab inflation high ho aur economic growth slow ho jaye. Middle East ka conflict koi temporary issue nahi lag raha, isne energy markets ko asli mein disturb kar diya hai. Agar ye jaldi solve nahi hua, toh high inflation permanent ho sakta hai. Aur employment market bhi slow chal rahi hai, jisse Fed ke liye decisions lena aur bhi mushkil ho gaya hai.
Abhi toh sabki nazar inflation data par hai aur dekh rahe hain ki Fed kya karta hai. U.S. mein crude oil production badhne ka bhi estimate hai, par energy sector mein abhi thoda confusion hai. Dusri taraf, consumer discretionary stocks ko high interest rates aur kamzor kharch karne wale consumers se problem ho sakti hai. Market ab aage ka data dekh kar hi decide karega ki ye inflation rukegi ya nahi.