Whalesbook
Okay, toh hua kya hai, dosto? April 6 ko na, USA ke spot Bitcoin ETFs mein ek din mein sabse zyada inflow dekha gaya last month mein, lagbhag $471.32 Million! Iske wajah se Bitcoin ka price bhi $68,000 se $69,000 ke beech mein settle ho gaya aur selling pressure ko control mein rakha.
BlackRock ka IBIT ne sabse zyada paisa kheenchha, $181.9 Million, aur Fidelity ka FBTC bhi peeche nahi raha, $147.3 Million le aaya. Aur haan, Ethereum spot ETFs mein bhi $120.24 Million ka inflow hua, jo outflows ke baad ek achhi khabar hai. Generally, jab daily inflows $300 Million se upar jaate hain, toh lambi rally aati hai, toh yeh sab ek positive sign hai.
Lekin yeh sab paisa toh aa gaya, par market ke andar ki tension ko bhi samajhna zaroori hai. Oil prices dekho, Brent crude $107 per barrel ke paar hai aur agar Strait of Hormuz mein kuch gadbad hui toh $150 tak bhi ja sakta hai! Yeh energy prices seedha inflation ko badhati hain.
OECD ka kehna hai ki US mein inflation iss saal 4.2% rehne wala hai, jo Fed ke 2.7% target se kaafi zyada hai. Is inflation ke pressure mein Fed jaldi se interest rates kam nahi karega. Abhi market mein lagbhag 98% chances hain ki Fed April mein rates hold karega. JPMorgan wale toh keh rahe hain ki iss saal koi rate cut nahi hoga, aur 2027 ke end mein shayad hike bhi ho jaye! Ye expectations aur reality match nahi ho rahi.
Ek aur badi baat ye hai ki, brokers aur analysts ko lag raha hai ki ETF inflows ke bawajood, market andar se thodi fragile hai. Ye market abhi range-bound toh hai, par bahut delicate hai. Jo regular buyers hote hain, unka demand kam hai, aur companies bhi ab pehle jaisa nahi khareed rahi. Options market data bhi dikha raha hai ki agar price $68,000 ke neeche gaya toh volatility badh sakti hai, aur market makers ki positions selling ko aur badha sakti hain.
Kuch experts ka yeh bhi kehna hai ki jo price badh raha hai woh sirf ETF ke paison ki wajah se hai, asli value ya demand se nahi. Aur Bitcoin bhi aajkal Nasdaq-100 ke saath 85% tak correlate kar raha hai jab oil prices badhti hain. Matlab, inflation ke against hedge banne ke bajaye, yeh risky tech stock ki tarah behave kar raha hai. Agar tech stocks gire, toh Bitcoin bhi gir sakta hai. Isi liye kuch log $50,000 ka target bhi de rahe hain high interest rates aur tech stock ke link ki wajah se.
Toh bhaiyo, situation thodi complex hai. Ek taraf ETFs se achha demand aa raha hai, doosri taraf global economy mein inflation aur oil prices ki tension hai. ETFs support de rahe hain, par market abhi bhi inflation news, global events aur Fed ke decisions par bahut depend karegi. Lagta hai abhi short term mein price mein kafi ups and downs dekhene ko milenge. Toh news par nazar rakho, especially inflation reports aur Fed statements pe!