Whalesbook
Bitcoin ka ye $80,000 ke upar jaana U.S. investors ki wajah se nahi hai. Asal mein, offshore traders ne perpetual futures mein leverage use karke is rally ko boost kiya hai. Ye U.S. institutional rally se bilkul alag hai. Coinbase Premium jo late April se negative hai, ye dikhata hai ki Bitcoin offshore pe U.S. exchanges se zyada mehenga bik raha hai, matlab U.S. buyers ki demand kam hai. Experts keh rahe hain ye bas ek relief bounce hai, asli accumulation nahi ho raha.
On-chain data bhi kamzor demand bata raha hai. Short-term holders ne 3 saal mein pehli baar loss mein sell kiya hai, phir bhi overall demand futures mein zyada hai. Leverage wale futures risk badhate hain aur rapid liquidations ka karan ban sakte hain. Spot buying jo price ko stable rakhti hai, woh kam hai. Ye situation March 2022 jaisi hai jab futures badhe aur spot gira, jiske baad lambi girawat aayi thi.
Crypto market par latest U.S. economic data ka turant asar hua. April ka U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) 6% (year-over-year) badh gaya, jo market expectations se kaafi zyada hai. Isse inflation ki chinta badh gayi hai aur lagta hai ki Federal Reserve interest rates ko zyada time tak high rakhega. Aise mein speculative assets se paisa nikal sakta hai. Bitcoin bhi $80,000 ke crucial support level ke neeche gir gaya, jo ab resistance ban gaya hai.
Leverage par chali rally mein structural weaknesses hain, jisse Bitcoin sharp reversals ke liye vulnerable hai. $70,000 ka level ab critical support mana ja raha hai. CLARITY Act vote se regulation mein clarity aa sakti hai, par delays bhi ho sakte hain. Ethereum ke muqable, Bitcoin mein primary driver speculative futures positioning lag raha hai. U.S. institutional involvement ki kami se rally mein dum kam lag raha hai. Gold ya AI equities jaise dusre assets bhi Bitcoin ki trajectory ko affect kar sakte hain.
Kuch analysts $90,000-$100,000 ka target de rahe hain agar ETF inflows continue hue aur Bitcoin $82,000 ke resistance ko break karta hai. Lekin short-term outlook uncertain hai. $70,000 support hold karna zaroori hai. Agar $80,000 ke neeche rehta hai toh leveraged positions unwind ho sakti hain aur price aur gir sakta hai.