Citigroup ki latest report ke mutabik, unhone Bitcoin ka 12-month price target kam karke $112,000 aur Ether ka $3,175 kar diya hai. Yeh pichle forecasts se kaafi bada revision hai, aur asal reason hai US mein crypto ke liye naye niyam (regulations) aane mein jo deri ho rahi hai.
Regulatory Hurdles
Asal mein, ek important bill jisme digital assets ke liye rules clear hone the, woh Senate mein atak gaya hai. Iske pass hone ke chances ab kam lag rahe hain, around 60%. SEC aur CFTC ne ek agreement sign kiya hai, but institutional investors ko ek proper law chahiye hota hai clarity ke liye. Jab bhi US mein regulatory uncertainty badhti hai, market mein short-term drops dikhte hain.
ETF ka Support
Par saari khabar buri nahi hai. Spot Bitcoin aur Ether ETFs mein jo paisa aa raha hai, woh ek bada positive hai. Citigroup predict kar raha hai ki next 12 months mein Bitcoin ETFs mein $10 billion aur Ether ETFs mein $2.5 billion ka inflow ho sakta hai. Yeh inflows market ko ek support level de rahe hain, but yeh rapid growth se alag hai.
Global Factors & Bear Case
Market sirf regulation se nahi, global economic situations se bhi chalta hai. Upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision aur inflation data liquidity par impact karega. Iran wali tension se bhi market mein volatility hai, log risk-off ho rahe hain. Bitcoin ab gold ki tarah safe haven nahi, balki stocks jaisa risk asset behave kar raha hai.
Citigroup ka bearish case toh serious hai: agar recession aata hai, toh Bitcoin $58,000 aur Ether $1,198 tak gir sakta hai. Regulatory uncertainty isko aur worse bana rahi hai.
Future Outlook
Overall outlook thoda cautious hai. Kuch analysts 2026 end tak Bitcoin ko $75,000 se $150,000-$250,000 tak bhi dekh rahe hain. Ethereum ne recent times mein Bitcoin se acha perform kiya hai. Aage ka path US regulations, Federal Reserve ki policies aur global tensions pe nirbhar karta hai.