Bitcoin Signal Confusion: ETFs ki wajah se Volatility ka Pata Lagana Hua Mushkil?

CRYPTO
Whalesbook Logo
AuthorVihaan Mehta|Published at:
Bitcoin Signal Confusion: ETFs ki wajah se Volatility ka Pata Lagana Hua Mushkil?
Overview

Bitcoin mein pehle February mein jo **90%** tak volatility dikhi thi na, woh usually market bottom ka sign deti hai. Lekin ab, Bitcoin ETFs ke launch aur duniya bhar ke tensions ke karan, yeh signal pakka nahi lag raha. Sab confuse hain ki aage kya hoga.

Kya Bitcoin Ka Volatility Indicator Ab Kaam Nahi Kar Raha?

Bhaiyon, Bitcoin ka scene thoda complicated ho gaya hai. February ke shuru mein, jab Bitcoin $60,000 ke aas paas tha, toh 30-day implied volatility 90% tak pahunch gayi thi. Yeh toh normal sign hai ki market mein bottom ban gaya hai, bilkul S&P 500 ke VIX index ki tarah. Lekin ab iska bharosa karna mushkil ho raha hai, khaas kar jab se Bitcoin ETFs aa gaye hain.

ETFs ka Impact Aur Duniya Ki Chinta

March mein, Bitcoin spot ETFs mein lagbhag $2.5 billion ka paisa aaya hai, jisme BlackRock ka IBIT sabse aage hai. Yeh bahut badhiya comeback hai February ke end aur March ke start mein hue outflows ke baad. Lekin yeh sab ho raha hai jab duniya meinafi tense hai. Iran conflict se tel ke daam badh rahe hain aur sab ek 'risk-off' mood mein hain. Isi wajah se, Bitcoin ab S&P 500 ke saath 0.55 correlate kar raha hai, matlab yeh bhi ek risky asset ki tarah behave kar raha hai.

Kya Market Ne Sach Mein Bottom Bana Liya Hai?

Abhi yeh kehna mushkil hai ki Bitcoin ne pakka bottom bana liya hai. VIX index bhi 26.15 par hai, jo global chinta dikha raha hai. Haalanki, yeh April 2025 ke peaks se kam hai. Market mein aisa lag raha hai ki rallies sirf fund inflows ya derivatives ke karan ho rahi hain, asli demand se nahi. Regulatory side par bhi abhi clarity nahi hai, jahan SEC aur CFTC ne kuch crypto ko 'digital commodities' kaha hai, par CLARITY Act aur stablecoin rules par abhi 70% chance hi approval ka lag raha hai.

Aage Kya Ho Sakta Hai?

Bitcoin ka short-term future support levels par depend karta hai. Agar ETF inflows badhte rahe toh yeh $71,378 ya $74,450 tak ja sakta hai. Lekin agar yeh $66,700 se neeche gira toh $62,900 tak aa sakta hai. CLARITY Act aur naye regulations market ko kaafi influence karenge.

Disclaimer:This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Readers should consult a SEBI-registered advisor before making decisions. Investments are subject to market risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. The publisher and authors are not liable for any losses. Accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed, and views expressed may not reflect the publication’s editorial stance.