Whalesbook
Abe, Bitcoin mein aajkal badi ajeeb shaanti chhayi hui hai. Price thoda gir bhi gaya hai aur U.S. Treasury yields bhi badh rahe hain, par Bitcoin ka implied volatility (matlab aage kitna girega ya badhega uska andaaza) bilkul low hai.
Ye Volatility ka khel kya hai?
Bitcoin ka 30-day annualized implied volatility (BVIV) nearly year-to-date low 42% par hai. Jabki, mid-May mein price $82,000 se $77,000 tak 7% gira tha. Udhar, U.S. Treasury yields badh rahe hain aur MOVE index (jo Treasury market ki volatility batata hai) 69% se 85% ho gaya hai. Matlab, traditional market mein tension badh rahi hai, par crypto market chup chap hai. Ye gap interesting hai!
Options Traders ka Plan: Straddles!
Is low volatility wale mahol mein, options traders ko mauka dikh raha hai. Deribit ke Chief Commercial Officer, Jean-David Péquignot ka kehna hai ki Bitcoin ki current implied volatility historical lows ke paas hai, isliye straddle strategies kaafi attractive lag rahi hain. Straddle mein trader ek hi strike price aur expiry wale call aur put options dono kharidta hai. Agar price kisi bhi direction mein tezi se move karta hai, toh faayda hota hai. Ye strategy tab kaam aati hai jab current volatility kam ho par aage badhne ki umeed ho. Aage U.S. CPI data aur Federal Reserve ke announcements hone wale hain, toh options abhi saste lag rahe hain bhavishya ki price movement par bet lagane ke liye.
Macro Risks ko Bhool nahi sakte!
Lekin haan, ye low implied volatility dekh kar zyada relax hone ki zaroorat nahi hai. Kai macroeconomic factors chinta badha rahe hain. Badhte Treasury yields riskier assets jaise Bitcoin se paisa nikalwa sakte hain. Spot Bitcoin ETFs se bhi outflows dikh rahe hain, jo institutional interest mein kami ka signal ho sakta hai. MOVE index ka badhna bond market mein badhti nervousness dikhata hai, jiska asar dusre assets par bhi pad sakta hai. Ye sab factors, upar se koi naya regulation ya monetary policy mein change, Bitcoin mein tezi se price swings la sakta hai.
Aage kya ho sakta hai?
Market abhi Bitcoin ki future volatility ko underestimate kar raha hai. Upcoming economic data aur central bank ki baaton se badi movement aa sakti hai. Traders isi ko dhyan mein rakh kar apni strategies bana rahe hain. Dekhna hoga ki traditional market ki volatility aur crypto ki implied volatility kaise react karti hai.