Whalesbook
So, hua kya ki Ambit Institutional Equities ne stock ko 'Sell' se upgrade karke seedha 'Buy' kar diya. Aur target bhi rakha ₹126, matlab current price se lagbhag 23% ka potential upside!
Par market ne is khabar ko ignore kar diya. Stock girte girte ₹98.80 tak pahunch gaya aur lagbhag ₹99.46 par trade ho raha tha. Matlab, analyst kuch aur keh raha hai, aur investors kuch aur hi soch rahe hain.
Ab Ambit wale kyun bullish hain? Unka kehna hai ki company ki supply chain mast hai aur woh price mein lead karti hai. Plus, 70% se 75% tak ka maal khud ka hai. Unka sales mix bhi sahi hai, jismein apparel ka hissa 44% hai, aur baki 28% FMCG aur general merchandise se aata hai. Isse store ka RoCE 35% mast hai, jo expansion ke liye accha hai. Woh expect kar rahe hain ki revenue 16% aur EPS 21% ke CAGR se grow karega FY26-28 tak.
Lekin market sabse zyada dhyan de raha hai inflation, leadership change ki chinta, aur competition par. Saath wale competitors ko dekho toh Avenue Supermarts (DMart) ka valuation 70x P/E par hai, aur Trent ka 60x P/E par. Ambit khud bhi Trent ko DMart se zyada pasand karta hai, aur DMart par 'Sell' rating bhi diya hai. Vishal Mega Mart ka stock toh pichle mahine 17.4% aur 6 mahine mein 33.7% gir chuka hai, toh market ka mood already down tha.
Ambit ne bhi mana hai ki raw material inflation aur leadership mein koi gadbad hui toh margins par pressure aa sakta hai. Company par debt bhi moderate hai, lagbhag 0.5x debt-to-equity ratio. Jabki kayi bade players kam ya zero debt par hain. Ho sakta hai market ko lag raha ho ki 30% girne ke baad bhi stock ka valuation abhi bhi high hai, khaskar ke jab Ambit pehle is par bearish tha. Analyst consensus toh 'Buy' bol raha hai (14 of 15), average target ₹120 ke aas paas hai, jo current price se koi bahut bada upside nahi deta.
Baaki analysts toh Ambit se bhi zyada optimistic hain, woh revenue CAGR 20% tak expect kar rahe hain. Company ka store area badhana aur same-store sales growth uski growth ka base banega. Ambit ka kehna hai ki jo current low price hai, woh un investors ke liye achha risk/reward offer karta hai jo short-term issues ko nazarandaz kar sakte hain. Ab dekhte hain company inflation ko kaise manage karti hai aur competition mein kaise tikti hai.