Whalesbook
UBL Ka Bura Haal Kyun?
Asal mein hua ye hai ki United Breweries, jo India ki sabse badi beer company hai, unke CEO Vivek Gupta ne bataya hai ki industry bahut mushkil daur se guzar rahi hai. Bottles, ingredients, sab kuch mehenga ho gaya hai. Global conflicts ki wajah se production cost toh 15% tak badh gayi hai, aur bhai lagta hai yeh situation kam se kam 6 mahine aur chalegi.
State Rules Ne Bandhe Haath
Sabse bada problem pata hai kya hai? State governments ka price control! UBL ke lagbhag 75% business pe state excise policies ka rule chalta hai, matlab woh log apni marzi se daam nahi badha sakte. Telangana ka example suno, jahan beer ke ek case ke unhein sirf ₹330 milte hain, jabki govt ka tax ₹1,400 hai! Bhai, ye toh sarasar loot ho gayi! CEO ne govt se request ki hai ki selling price 15% badhane dein, par seedha consumer pe bojh na daalein, balki revenue level par adjust karein. Is price ceiling ki wajah se woh log badhti hui costs ko recover nahi kar pa rahe.
Can Shortage Aur Expenses Ka Bojh
Aur tension kya hai? Aluminium cans ki bhi kami chal rahi hai. Aluminium ke daam toh record high par hain, isliye cans kharidna bahut mehnga ho gaya hai. Local manufacturers ne bhi gas ki kami aur badhte daam ke karan problem create kar di hai. Bahar se mangwana bhi mehnga hai. Ye bottleneck lagta hai lambi chalegi, aur solutions aane mein saalon lagenge.
Log Saste Brand Pe Ja Rahe Hain?
Jab mehngai badhti hai toh log kya karte hain? Saste options pe shift ho jaate hain. UBL bhi dekh raha hai ki log ab zyada economy brands aur chhoti packs le rahe hain. Isse sales volume toh maintain hai (4.5-5% saal dar saal), par profit kam ho raha hai. Aur maze ki baat ye hai ki company ka valuation filhal kaafi high hai. April 2026 tak P/E ratio 94-111 ke beech hai, jo Radico Khaitan (80.43) aur United Spirits (58.63) se bhi zyada hai. Jab costs badh rahi hain aur price badha nahi sakte, toh itna high valuation kaise justify hoga?
Final Verdict Kya Hai?
Toh, UBL ke saamne paanch bade challenges hain: 1. Pricing Controls: States ki wajah se price badha nahi sakte. 2. Can Shortage: Aluminium ka rona. 3. Downtrading: Log saste maal pe ja rahe hain, profit kam ho raha hai. 4. Production Costs: 15% increase. 5. High Valuation: Stock mehenga lag raha hai. Analyst bhi confuse hain. Kai log 'HOLD' keh rahe hain, par Motilal Oswal jaisi firms 'SELL' rating de rahi hain. Stock bhi apne high se gira hai aur technical sell signal dikha raha hai.