Whalesbook
Results Toh Mast The, Par Stock Ka Mood Kharab Kyun?
Dekho, Trent ne Q4 FY26 mein kamaal kar dikhaya. Unka EBITDA 42.3% jump karke Rs 927.8 Crore tak pahunch gaya, aur margins bhi badhkar 18.5% ho gaye. Net profit 32.5% badhkar Rs 413 Crore aur revenue 19.2% badhkar Rs 5,028 Crore ho gaya. Ye numbers pakka strong hain, par stock 23 April 2026 ko lagbhag 4% neeche girkar Rs 4,270 ke aas paas trade kar raha tha. Matlab, log results se zyada company ke future financial moves par focus kar rahe the.
Aur haan, Trent ka stock 91.81x ke P/E ratio par chal raha hai, jo competitors jaise Reliance Industries (22x P/E) se kaafi zyada hai. Iska matlab hai ki company se bahut growth ki ummeed pehle se hi price mein add ho chuki hai, aur thoda bhi uncertainty pe stock reaction dikhata hai.
Paisa Jama Karne Ka Bada Plan: Rs 2,500 Crore!
Stock girne ka sabse bada reason yahi tha ki board ne Rs 2,500 Crore tak fund raise karne ka approval de diya. Ye paisa shares bech kar ya kisi aur tarike se jama kiya ja sakta hai. Iske saath hi, company ne pehli baar 1:2 ka bonus share issue aur Rs 6 per share ka dividend bhi announce kiya hai. Ye sab signs hain ki company expansion ke liye bade plans bana rahi hai. Q4 mein hi Trent ne 109 Zudio aur 22 Westside stores khole, ab total 1,286 outlets ho gaye hain. Expansion accha hai, par investors ab soch rahe hain ki itna bada paisa kahaan use hoga aur kya iski zarurat thi jab performance accha chal raha hai.
Retail Sector Ka Haal Chaal
Overall Indian apparel retail sector mein FY27 mein 10.5% ki revenue growth ki ummeed hai, jo FY26 ke estimated 9% se zyada hai. Chhote shehron se demand badh rahi hai aur organised retail ki taraf log zyada aa rahe hain. Par haalanki, global supply chain issues aur inflation se sector pressure mein aa sakta hai. ICRA jaise rating agencies bhi keh rahi hain ki FY27 mein GDP growth kam ho sakti hai, jisse retail sector par thoda pressure aa sakta hai.
High Valuation Mein Risk Kya Hai?
Trent ka stock already bahut expensive hai (P/E around 90x), matlab agar growth slow hui ya koi execution problem hui toh stock tezi se gir sakta hai. Rs 2,500 Crore ka fund raise growth ko support karega, par agar paisa sahi se manage nahi kiya toh dilution ka risk hai. Retail sector mein competition, inflation, interest rates aur consumer confidence bhi affect karte hain. Stock mein volatility kaafi rahi hai, pichhle ek saal mein hi -16.79% gir chuka hai, isse pata chalta hai ki market sentiment kaise badal sakta hai.
Analysts Kya Keh Rahe Hain?
Zyadatar analysts abhi bhi positive hain aur 'Strong Buy' rating de rahe hain. Lekin sabke views thode alag hain. Koi valuation ko lekar chintit hai toh koi capital raise ko lekar. Jaise, UBS ne 'Buy' rating di hai aur Rs 6,200 ka target diya hai, jabki Kotak ne 'Reduce' rating rakhi hai. Aage yeh capital raise kahan use hota hai aur same-store sales grow hoti hai ya nahi, yeh dekhna important hoga. Chairman Noel N Tata ko umeed hai ki jab tak geopolitical situation theek ho jayegi, consumer confidence bhi recover hoga.