Whalesbook
To bhai, Trent ne apne shareholders ko khush khabar di hai. Board ne approve kiya hai 1:2 bonus share issue, matlab har 2 share par 1 bonus share free! Aur yeh 1996 ke baad pehli baar ho raha hai, matlab almost 30 saal baad! Iske alawa, ₹6 per equity share ka dividend bhi announce kiya hai. Ekdum party wali baat, right?
Lekin bhai, market ne isko itna khaas response nahi diya. Stock thoda neeche hi trade kar raha hai. Log keh rahe hain ki company ke share ka valuation bahut high ho gaya hai aur Indian retail market mein competition bhi badh raha hai. Isi wajah se investors thode nervous hain, jiske karan stock apne recent highs se 17% se 30% tak gir chuka hai aur ₹5,200 ke 52-week high se bhi kaafi neeche aa gaya hai.
Dekho, India ka retail market toh $1.4 trillion tak pahunchne wala hai 2027 tak, kapdo ka bhi business $115 billion hoga 2026 tak. Lekin aajkal log soch samajh kar kharch kar rahe hain. Trent ka P/E ratio lagbhag 77.6x se 88.85x chal raha hai, jo industry average 69.76x se zyada hai. Company ka debt-to-equity 0.37x - 0.41x hai aur ROE 27% se upar hai, jo accha hai. Par itna high valuation matlab future mein bahut high growth expect ki ja rahi hai, jo maintain karna mushkil ho sakta hai. Nuvama ne toh stock ko 'Hold' kar diya hai valuation ko dekh kar, Macquarie ne 'Underperform' rating di hai aur Bernstein toh keh raha hai ki agar growth ruk gayi toh share price badi girawat dikha sakta hai. Haan, kuch analysts 'Strong Buy' bhi keh rahe hain aur target ₹4,795 diya hai, par risk toh hai.
Ek aur badi tension hai Trent ki Zudio stores ki aggressive expansion. Reports aa rahi hain ki kuch areas mein Zudio stores itne zyada ho gaye hain ki woh ek dusre ki hi sales maar rahe hain. Kuch jagah toh sales kam ho rahi hai. Aur Zudio mein products ₹999 se kam ke hain, toh agar input costs badhte hain, toh company aasani se prices nahi badha payegi, jisse profit margins par pressure aa sakta hai. FY26 mein revenue ₹20,074 crore tha aur profit margin 8.6% tha (jo pehle 9.0% tha). FY27 mein energy, logistics aur real estate ke kharch badh sakte hain.
Company ab Tier II aur III cities mein zyada focus kar rahi hai, wahan 80% naye Zudio stores khule hain. Ye naye markets mature hone mein 2-3 saal lag sakte hain. Trent fundraising bhi explore kar rahi hai expansion ke liye. Overall, future toh hai, par company ko competition aur growth plan ko execute karte hue margins maintain karne honge.