Whalesbook
Okay, toh hua kya hai ki 1 February, 2026 se cigarettes par naya excise duty lagoo ho gaya hai. Is tax ke badhne se ITC aur Godfrey Phillips India ke liye pakka problem hone wala hai. January mein hi inke shares 11% se bhi zyada gira diye gaye. Especially Godfrey Phillips India toh shuru mein hi 18.5% toot gaya tha. Yeh naya tax, cigarette ki length ke hisab se, Rs 2,050 se lekar Rs 8,500 tak per 1,000 sticks badha deta hai, aur yeh existing 40% GST ke upar hai. Analysts ka kehna hai ki isse cigarettes ki cost 22% se 28% tak badh jayegi, jo ki ITC ke liye 16% sales volume wale segment par lagega. Retail price bhi per stick ₹2 se ₹3 tak badh sakti hai.
Ab brokerages bhi thoda cautions ho gaye hain. ICICI Securities ne toh ITC ka target price ₹348 se kam karke ₹314 kar diya hai aur unka kehna hai ki stock 'Reduce' karo. Prabhudas Lilladher bhi same hi opinion de rahe hain. Woh expect kar rahe hain ki sector mein yeh 22% se 50% tak ka price hike aa sakta hai, jisse sales volume aur short-term profit dono par bada impact padega. History dekho toh jab bhi aise duty hikes lage hain, toh investors kuch time ke liye exit karte hain kyuki profit margins aur demand dono kam hone ka dar rehta hai. Haan, agar company price hike ko customers se successfully recover kar payi toh phir stock wapas theek ho jata hai.
Par sirf cigarette business ki problem nahi hai, market aur logon ki preferences bhi change ho rahi hain, toh companies ko bade changes karne padenge. ITC toh waise bhi apne non-tobacco businesses jaise FMCG mein kaafi invest kar raha hai, jahan Q3 mein 60% ka growth dikhaya hai. Unko government ki policies aur paperboard ka kharcha kam hone se bhi fayda mil sakta hai. Godfrey Phillips India ko bhi ab aise hi dusre businesses mein jana hoga, lekin lagta hai woh abhi ITC jitne advanced level par nahi pahunche hain. Aage chal kar yeh companies kitni successful hongi, yeh is baat par depend karega ki woh kitni jaldi apna focus traditional tobacco products se hatakar dusre revenue streams par laate hain. Global health organisations bhi yahi bol rahe hain ki tobacco par aur zyada tax lagaya jana chahiye.