Whalesbook
Okay, toh asal mein kya chal raha hai? Ye jo Delhi mein liquor ban hai na, isse Pernod Ricard jaise brands jaise Chivas Regal aur Absolut Vodka ko lakho logon tak pahunchne mein problem ho rahi hai. India mein alcohol market bahut bada hai, around $65 billion ka, aur foreign companies ko yahan regulations samjhna bahut difficult hai.
Asal issue yeh hai ki Delhi authorities ne Pernod Ricard ka license apply karne ka request February 2026 mein chauthi baar reject kar diya hai. Pichle 3 saal se (since 2023) unka license pass nahi ho raha. Isliye company ne ab Delhi High Court mein naya case daal diya hai. Pernod Ricard ka kehna hai ki is ban ne unke business ko Delhi mein 3 saal se "hopelessly fettered" yaani bilkul bandh kar diya hai. Delhi waise bhi unke India sales ka 5% tha, aur March 2025 tak India mein total sales $2.86 billion thi. Unka stock RI.PA Europe mein €61.50 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai, market cap lagbhag €15.45 billion hai. Year-to-date stock -10.01% gir chuka hai.
Aur tensions tab aur badh gaye jab India ki financial crime agency ne allegations lagaye ki Pernod Ricard ne 2021 mein retailers ke saath milkar apni market share badhane ki koshish ki. Plus, India ke antitrust regulator ne bhi same cheezon par naya investigation start kiya hai. Toh company ab do taraf se pressure mein hai.
Market bhi kaafi competitive hai. Diageo India aur Suntory jaise players yahan growth kar rahe hain. FY25 mein Diageo India ki revenue ₹27,276 crore thi, aur Pernod Ricard India ki ₹27,445.80 crore. Suntory bhi India ko apne global business ka 10% banane ka aim kar raha hai. India ka alcohol market 2034 tak $176.2 billion tak pahunchne ka estimate hai.
Current situation mein, analysts ka kehna hai ki Pernod Ricard ka stock uski actual value se kam price par trade ho raha hai, around 10.94 forward P/E pe. Analysts ka average target price €87.03 hai, matlab 41% tak upside ho sakta hai. Lekin, ye jo India mein licenses aur investigation wala scene hai, woh filhaal ek bada risk bana hua hai. Iska final decision aage foreign companies ke liye ek example ban sakta hai.