Whalesbook
Dividend Expectation Se Kam, Par Company Ke Paas Hai Cash!
Nestle India ke board ne financial year 2025-26 ke liye ₹5 ka final dividend approve kiya hai. Isse total FY26 ka dividend ₹12 per share ho gaya hai. Par bhai, analysts ki average estimate ₹14.56 thi, jo ki kaafi zyada hai. Estimates toh ₹7 se lekar ₹32 tak thi, matlab kaafi wide range. Company ke paas ₹1,320 crore cash bhi hai, lekin lagta hai woh abhi zyada paisa shareholder ko dene ke bajaye company mein hi rakhna chahte hain. Waise bhi, Nestle India hamesha se dividend ke mamle mein analysts ki expectation se thoda kam hi deti aayi hai FY21 se FY24 tak.
Q4 Mein Results Ne Uda Diye Hosh!
Jab dividend kam tha, toh results ki baat karte hain. Q4 mein company ka performance dhamakedar raha. Revenue 22.6% badhkar aaya, jo Bloomberg ki ₹6,186 crore ki estimate se bhi zyada hai. EBITDA bhi 27.6% badhkar ₹1,772 crore ho gaya. Sabse achhi baat yeh hai ki profit margin 26.3% ho gaya, jo pehle 25.2% tha. Matlab cost control aur pricing power dono zabardast chal rahi hai. Net profit bhi 26% badhkar ₹1,114 crore ho gaya, jo ₹926 crore ki estimate se bhi beat kar gaya.
Valuation Bhi Hai Bahut High, Peers Se Kafi Aage
Nestle India ka valuation market mein sabse alag hai. Iska Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio lagbhag 71.66 se 79.44 ke beech hai. Ab FMCG industry ka average P/E dekho toh woh sirf 47.81 hai. Matlab Nestle India apne competitors se kaafi expensive hai. Jaise Hindustan Unilever (HUL) ka P/E 33.1 se 54.6 hai, aur Britannia Industries ka 56.48 se 57.21 hai. Nestle India ki market value lagbhag ₹2.47 lakh crore se ₹2.50 lakh crore hai, aur itna high P/E future mein high growth ki expectations dikhata hai. Iska dividend yield bhi 1.32% hai, jo HUL ke 2.37% se kam hai.
Analysts Kehte Hain Kya? Kuch Ko Lagta Hai Risk Hai!
Achhe results hone ke bawajood, kuch analysts cautious hain. CLSA ne toh July 2025 mein Nestle India ko 'Hold' kar diya tha, kyunki unhe quarterly results, badhte costs aur finance costs ki chinta thi. Unhe valuation bhi "high" laga. MarketsMojo ne bhi March 2026 mein 'Hold' rating di, jismein premium pricing aur mixed technical signals ka zikr tha. BofA Securities ne toh April 2025 mein hi 'Underperform' rating de di thi, jismein demand ki kami, badhti costs aur high valuation ko reasons bataya gaya tha. Dividend ka pattern aur high P/E valuation investors ke liye ek risk factor ho sakta hai agar growth slow hui toh.
Aage Ka Kya Scene Hai?
Overall Indian FMCG sector mein 2026 tak high single-digit volume growth ki umeed hai, jismein urban aur rural demand dono sudhar rahi hain. Nestle India ek leader hone ke naate fayda uthayegi. Lekin analyst views mixed hain. Kuch jaise Axis Securities ne 'Buy' rating di hai ₹2520 ke target price ke saath, jabki BofA Securities ne 'Underperform' rating di hai. Average analyst target price mein lagbhag 11.63% ka upside dikh raha hai. Ab dekhte hain Nestle India kaise apne high valuation aur conservative dividend strategy ko balance karti hai aur aage bhi growth maintain kar paati hai ya nahi.