Whalesbook
Socho, April mahine ki shuruat mein Lux Industries ka stock lagbhag ₹831.20 par tha, aur mahine ke end tak seedha ₹1,747.05 par pahunch gaya. Matlab 100% se bhi zyada ka jump! Iske peeche kaafi reasons hain – company ne kaha hai ki wo 2028 tak 60 countries mein expand karenge, sirf innerwear hi nahi, ab athleisure aur outerwear mein bhi utrenge. Online sales ka bhi bada target rakha hai, ₹200 crore teen saal mein. Yeh sab announcements sunkar investors toh khush ho gaye, aur isi wajah se Mukul Agrawal jinka ismein stake hai, unki wealth bhi kaafi badh gayi.
Lekin yahan ek twist hai! Jab hum numbers dekhte hain, toh thoda alag picture dikhta hai. Lux Industries ka P/E ratio lagbhag 40 se 46.6 ke beech mein hai. Ab competitors ko dekho, Dollar Industries ka P/E 14.9-18.2 hai aur Go Fashion ka 21.94-36.96. Matlab Lux ka valuation in sabse kaafi upar hai. Page Industries thoda upar hai, par uski performance bhi alag hai. Aur Lux ke khud ke results? Q3 FY26 mein revenue ₹672.64 crore raha, jo pichle quarter se 13.63% kam hai. Net profit toh aur bhi gira, ₹12.51 crore raha, jo QoQ 45.75% aur YoY 60.30% kam hua hai. EBITDA margins bhi 5.33% par aa gaye, jo pehle 9.03% the. Yeh sab advertising aur naye products par kharch karne ki wajah se hua hai, par earnings abhi dikha nahi rahe.
Haan, ye sach hai ki Indian apparel market badh raha hai aur 2034 tak USD 117.05 billion tak pahunchne ka andaaza hai. Logon ki income badh rahi hai, urban population badh rahi hai, aur online shopping ka trend bhi hai. Lux Industries bhi digital reach aur new products par focus kar raha hai. Lekin agar company ki pichli 5 saal ki sales growth dekho toh woh 9-11% ke aas paas thi, jo abhi share price ke badhne se kaafi kam hai. Stock March mein ₹824 tak gir gaya tha, wahan se bounce back zaroor hua hai, par sirf fundamentals ke dam par nahi.
Isliye investors ko thoda alert rehne ki zarurat hai. Valuation toh badhiya hai, par profits gir rahe hain. Q3 FY26 mein profit aur margin mein jo badi kami aayi hai, woh ek bada red flag hai. Global expansion aur online sales ke jo bade targets hain, unko execute karna aasan nahi hoga. Aur sabse badi baat, analysts bhi abhi is rally se poore confident nahi lagte. Ek analyst ka average target ₹1,159 hai, jo abhi ke price se kaafi neeche hai. Matlab market ke bade players bhi shayad is rally ko sustainable nahi maan rahe.
Ab sabki nazar May 2026 mein aane wale FY26 audited results par hai. Wahan se pata chalega ki company ki growth strategy kaam kar rahi hai ya nahi aur investments ka kya asar hua hai. Analysts 'Strong Buy' keh rahe hain, par targets ek warning de rahe hain. Dekhna hoga ki future guidance, margins ka recovery aur naye products ka success company ke is premium valuation ko justify kar paate hain ya nahi.