Whalesbook
Growth Plans & Broker's Take
Motilal Oswal ko lagta hai ki Kalyan Jewellers ki revenue FY22 se FY26 tak har saal 33% ke hisaab se badhegi, aur FY26 se FY28 tak yeh 21% per annum ki speed se grow karegi. Unka kehna hai ki EBITDA aur profit toh revenue se bhi zyada tezi se bhagenge. Iska credit jaata hai company ke franchise model ko, jo ab revenue ka almost adha de raha hai, aur South India ke bahar bhi company kamaal kar rahi hai. Plus, higher margin wale studded jewelry ka share badh raha hai, jo ek achhi baat hai. Company ne FY25 mein 35.27% ka revenue growth dikhaya tha, aur December quarter mein toh 39% ka year-on-year jump tha. Asset-light expansion plan se cash flow bhi sudhrega aur debt bhi kam hoga.
Par Risk Bhi Toh Hai!
Ab baat karte hain cautions ki. Jo geopolitical tensions chal rahi hain, khaas kar Middle East mein, woh discretionary spending par impact kar sakti hain. Pehle bhi company ke capital spending par sawaal uthe the, jaise ki aircraft aur real estate investments jismein returns par doubt tha. Middle East business mein historically losses bhi dekhe gaye hain, aur wahaan ki current situation demand ko aur bhi affect kar sakti hai. Stock pehle bhi rumors ki wajah se gira tha. Aur haan, current RSI 42.01 hai, jo thoda neutral ground dikha raha hai.
Valuation Aur Future View
Valuation wise, Kalyan Jewellers abhi apne pichhle 12 mahine ke earnings ka lagbhag 35 guna par trade kar raha hai. Motilal Oswal ko ye kaafi attractive lag raha hai. Agar competitors se compare karein, toh Titan Company ka P/E ratio 76.53 hai, jabki PC Jeweller 10.14 par hai. Sector ka median P/E 22.55 hai. Company ki market cap March 2026 tak around ₹39,626 crore thi.
Analysts abhi bhi super bullish hain. Motilal Oswal ne ₹550 ka target price set kiya hai, jo FY28 earnings ka 30 guna hai. Overall, 9 analysts 'Strong Buy' keh rahe hain aur 2 'Buy' rating de rahe hain. Average target price ₹648.56 hai, jo current price se kaafi upar hai. Indian jewelry market bhi 2029 tak $130-$140 billion tak pahunchna expected hai. Toh, agar Kalyan Jewellers current economic aur geopolitical hurdles ko manage kar paata hai, toh yeh bada fayda utha sakta hai.