Whalesbook
Analyst ka confidence high hai, par costs ka tension bhi!
JM Financial United Spirits aur Allied Blenders & Distillers par filhaal bullish hai. Unhone dono ke price targets badha diye hain, although packaging material ke daam tezi se badh rahe hain. Firm ne bola ki dono companies alag alag tareeke se grow kar rahi hain aur Q4 mein unka performance, khaas kar India mein alcohol market mein premiumization trend ko pakadta hai. JM Financial ne United Spirits ko 'Add' rating ke saath ₹1,445 ka target diya hai, jo lagbhag 9% ka potential upside dikhata hai. Allied Blenders ke liye 'Buy' rating di hai aur target ko badha kar ₹650 kar diya hai, matlab 17% tak ka return mil sakta hai.
United Spirits: Premium sales se profit booming!
United Spirits, jo Diageo ka hissa hai, ne Q4 FY26 mein 28% year-on-year profit increase dikhaya hai, jo ₹539 crore raha. Net revenue thoda 3.7% badh kar ₹3,054 crore hua, jabki volumes 5.6% gire hain Maharashtra aur Andhra Pradesh mein policy changes ki wajah se. Lekin, jo prestige-and-above (P&A) segment hai, uski sales 4.9% badhi hai. Profitability bhi kaafi sudhari hai, gross margins 281 basis points badh kar 47.3% ho gaye hain aur EBITDA 17% rise hua hai. Company apne premium products par hi focus kar rahi hai aur P&A segment mein double-digit growth expect kar rahi hai. United Spirits ka P/E ratio 54.04x aur market cap lagbhag ₹96,694 crore hai.
Allied Blenders: Full year profit up, premium segment bhi strong!
Allied Blenders and Distillers (ABD) ne Q4 FY26 mein 52% year-on-year profit drop report kiya, jo ₹37.62 crore tha, aur revenue lagbhag flat raha ₹1,908.77 crore par. Lekin, poore FY26 ke liye, ABDL ka net profit 13% badha hai aur record ₹220.11 crore raha. Prestige & Above (P&A) segment mein Q4 mein 20% se zyada volume growth dekha gaya. Allied Blenders ka ICONiQ White brand FY26 mein 10 million cases se zyada bik gaya. ABDL ka P/E ratio 70.60x ke aas-paas hai, aur market capitalization lagbhag ₹15,541 crore hai.
Packaging costs ban rahe hain bade villains!
Alcoholic beverage sector ke liye ek badi chinta packaging costs mein achanak hui tezi hai. West Asia conflict ki wajah se crude oil prices badhne se plastic, glass, aur paperboard ke daam badh gaye hain. Plastic components aur PET resins 31-40% tak mehenge ho gaye hain, glass prices 8-20% upar gaye hain, aur paperboard cartons lagbhag double ho gaye hain. Crisil Ratings ka kehna hai ki in badhti hui costs ki wajah se alcobev companies ke EBITDA margins 150–200 basis points tak kam ho sakte hain. Yeh costs consumers par pass karna bhi mushkil hai kyunki supply disruptions ho sakte hain aur state approvals bhi chahiye honge.
Indian Market ka growth aur competition ka khel
Cost pressures ke bawajood, Indian alcoholic beverage market mein strong growth ki umeed hai, aur yeh 2035 tak USD 146.61 billion tak pahunch sakta hai. Premiumization iska ek bada factor hai, jismein consumers increasingly craft, flavored, aur imported drinks pasand kar rahe hain. United Spirits ka P&A focus aur Allied Blenders ki luxury portfolio expansion isi trend ko pakadte hain. Competition ki baat karein toh, United Spirits ka P/E lagbhag 54 hai, jabki Allied Blenders ka P/E 70.60 ke aas-paas hai. Market cap mein bhi United Spirits kaafi badi hai, ₹96,694 crore ke muqable Allied Blenders ₹15,541 crore ki hai. JM Financial ke target badhane se pata chalta hai ki unka confidence premiumization strategy par bana hua hai, bhale hi packaging costs ki wajah se margins par thoda dabav rahe.