Whalesbook
India ka consumer market badalne wala hai!
Ambit Institutional Equities ne bola hai ki India mein discretionary spending, matlab jo log apni marzi se kharcha karte hain, woh FY27 tak dheere ho jayega. Isse demand aur profit margins par asar pad sakta hai, lagbhag 2026 tak. Yeh thoda alag hai duniya ke trends se, jahan QSRs (Quick Service Restaurants) aksar mushkil time mein bhi accha perform karte hain. Par India mein, log QSRs ki jagah ghar ka khana zyada pasand karenge kyunki woh zyada sasta hai.
Jewellery aur Value Retail mein aayegi tezi!
Dusri taraf, jewellery ka business mast chalne wala hai. Shaadiyon ka season aa raha hai aur log sone ko saving ke liye bhi pasand karte hain. Value-oriented retail bhi duniya ke trends ko follow karegi aur accha perform karegi. Jo companies naye channels mein hain aur badhti categories mein kaam kar rahi hain, jaise Nykaa aur Lenskart, woh apni growth maintain rakhengi.
Inflation ka maara aur company ki strategy
Crude oil prices ki wajah se raw material mehnga ho raha hai, iska asar sab companies par alag-alag hoga. Kaun company kitna profit bacha payegi, yeh unki pricing, financial strength aur efficiency par depend karega.
Jo companies growth par focus kar rahi hain jaise Trent aur Vishal Mega Mart, woh apne bade scale ka use karke market share badha sakti hain. Jabki Aditya Birla Fashion, V-Mart Retail, aur Relaxo Footwears jaise companies jo margin ko lekar sensitive hain, woh shayad prices badha de, jisse sales kam ho sakti hai. Metro Brands, Page Industries, aur Aditya Birla Lifestyle jaise premium brands cost badhne par bhi prices easily badha sakte hain aur unki sales par zyada fark nahi padega.
DMart aur Nykaa jaise retailers is pressure se kaafi protected hain. Lenskart bhi apni in-house manufacturing ki wajah se bach jayega. Honasa Consumer prices adjust karega, par Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) ko profit kam hone ki wajah se cost absorb karne mein dikkat ho sakti hai.
Konsa stock kharidein?
Ambit ne Titan Company, Trent, V-Mart Retail, Nykaa, Metro Brands, aur Campus Activewear ko 'Buy' karne ki salah di hai, kyunki slowdown mein yeh companies stable rehti hain. Wahi, DMart, Page Industries, aur Urban Company ko 'Sell' karne ko bola gaya hai. Chhote aur mid-cap stocks se bhi savdhan rehne ko kaha gaya hai, jaise Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail.
FY26 ke end mein recovery dikh sakti hai, par FY27 mein inflation aur slow economy ki wajah se challenges rahenge. Trent, Metro Brands, Honasa Consumer, aur Campus Activewear ko iska fayda mil sakta hai.
Jubilant FoodWorks, Devyani International, aur Sapphire Foods India jaise QSR companies ke target price 15-17% kam kar diye gaye hain. Aditya Birla Fashion ka estimate 25% kam hua hai revenue aur margin ki chintaon ki wajah se. Trent ka target ₹4,795.67, Metro Brands ka ₹1,198.24, aur Titan Company ka ₹5,061.49 hai. Page Industries ka target ₹37,936.00 hai.
India mein retail inflation is saal 5.1% tak ja sakta hai, jisse consumer spending par aur pressure padega.