Whalesbook
Dekho, asghar mein toh sab kuch controlled lag raha tha, par companies thoda worried hain. India ke andar toh demand full on hai! Dabur India ne ghar aur personal care mein 15% se zyada growth dikhaya, Marico India ne bhi sales mein decent growth kiya. ITC toh apne food business mein 17% se zyada edible oils ka volume badha raha hai, thanks to unke vast distribution network jo lagbhag 10 lakh outlets tak pahunchta hai. Lekin, abroad mein, khaas kar Middle East mein, geopolitical issues ki wajah se growth thoda slow ho gaya. Aur sabse badi tension yeh hai ki crude oil aur vegetable oil ke prices bhari badh gaye hain. Godrej Consumer ne warning di hai ki agar rates aise hi rahe toh unke costs H1FY27 mein 6% se 9% tak badh sakte hain!
Sab companies ka situation alag hai. Dabur aur Emami, jinki 6% se 8% revenue Middle East se aati hai, woh geopolitical tension se zyada affected hain. Dusri taraf, Hindustan Unilever (HUL) aur Nestle India jaise bade players, apni scale aur pricing power ki wajah se, shayad inflation ko better handle kar payenge. Marico aur Dabur ke stocks toh already 50-60 times P/E pe chal rahe hain, toh unko growth maintain karna padega.
Toh overall, input costs badhne se profits par pressure aa sakta hai. Companies ne thode price increase kiye hain, par agar raw material expenses aur badhe toh profits kam ho sakte hain, specially agar price hikes se logon ki kharidari kam ho jaye. 2022 mein bhi jab commodity prices bahut badhe the, tab stock prices ne kafi correction dikhaya tha. Ab agar Godrej Consumer ki warning sach hui toh operating margins pe seedha asar padega. Dabur aur Emami ko ek aur challenge face karna pad raha hai: bahar demand kam hona aur ghar pe profit kam hona.
Ab companies FY27 ke liye cautious hain, par optimistic bhi. Woh domestic demand, smart pricing, aur strict cost control pe depend kar rahe hain. Motilal Oswal Financial Services ko lagta hai ki March quarter mein margins acche the, par June quarter mein inflation ki wajah se thoda fall aa sakta hai. Jo companies zyada diverse hain aur financialy strong hain, wohi is tough time mein better perform kar payengi.