Whalesbook
Yaar, yeh jo duniya mein global tensions badh rahi hain na, khaas kar Persian Gulf aur doosri jagahon par, isse India mein inflation ka bura haal ho gaya hai. Raw material ke prices itne zyada badh gaye hain ki companies ko samajh nahi aa raha kya karein. Upar se Indian Rupee bhi kamzor ho raha hai aur shipping ka kharcha bhi bahut zyada ho gaya hai. Is puri situation ko "volatility squeeze" bola ja raha hai. Pehle companies planning lambi karte the, ab toh companies ko roz input prices check karna pad raha hai.
Sabse pehle toh companies ne alag alag cheezon ke daam badha diye hain – appliances se lekar kapdon aur ghar ki zaroori cheezon tak, sab kuch mehenga ho gaya hai. Aur toh aur, kuch companies ne toh pack ka size bhi chhota kar diya hai, jisse bahar se mehnga nahi lagta par actually woh zyada paisa charge kar rahe hain. Isko "shrinkflation" kehte hain.
Aur yeh badhti hui mehengai na, jo post-pandemic log kharch karne ki thodi aadat bana rahe the, usko bhi khatam kar sakti hai. Havells India ke CEO Anil Rai Gupta bhi keh rahe hain ki price escalation toh lagbhag har product category mein hai, aur agar yeh hikes zyada steep ho gaye toh log khareedna kam kar denge.
Bajaj Consumer Care ke MD Naveen Pandey ne toh bataya ki unke poore cost base par 20% se lekar 60% tak inflation chal raha hai, khaas kar light liquid paraffin aur packaging material jaisi cheezon mein. Indian Rupee ki baat karein toh pichle 12 mahine mein yeh 10.43% kamzor ho gaya hai, ab lagbhag ₹94.11 chal raha hai US dollar ke mukable. Isse import ka kharcha aur bhi badh gaya hai. Global crude oil bhi mehenga hai, India ka import bill badh raha hai, aur yeh jaldi kam hone wala nahi lagta.
Is wajah se log zaroori cheezon par zyada kharch kar rahe hain, aur jo extra kharch hai, woh kam kar diya hai. Trent jaise apparel retailers bhi dekh rahe hain ki log ab phoonk phoonk kar kharch kar rahe hain.
FMCG sector mein thodi resilience dikh rahi hai, pehle 5% volume growth ki umeed thi par ab yeh recovery uncertain ho gayi hai FY27-28 ke liye. Jo companies acchi execution karti hain, jinke paas variety hai aur distribution network mazboot hai, wohi sambhal paayengi. Hindustan Unilever (HUL) toh mid-single digit revenue growth dikha degi, unka beauty and personal care segment acha chal raha hai. Godrej Consumer Products bhi household insecticides mein strong player hai.
Lekin Bajaj Consumer Care jaise companies jinki sales growth pichle 5 saal se slow thi, woh mushkil mein hain. AWL Agri Business ka stock bhi pichle 52 hafte mein gira hai, unke essential products hone ke bavajood, jo market sentiment ya valuation concerns dikha raha hai.
Yeh inflation India ke consumer market ki vulnerabilities bhi dikha rahi hai. Sabse bada risk hai ki demand destroy ho jaye: agar zaroori cheezon ke daam bhi badhte rahe, toh logon ki khareedne ki capacity kam ho jayegi, khaas kar gaon mein. Moody's Analytics ka forecast hai ki India ki inflation 4.5% ho jayegi 2026 mein, aur unemployment 7% ke aas paas rahegi.
Trent jaise companies jo discretionary items bechti hain, unke liye sales kam hone ka risk zyada hai. Havells India aur Trent jaise companies ke valuation bhi kaafi high hain (46-64x aur 83-97x P/E ratio), jiska matlab hai market ko unse future growth ki bohot umeed hai, jo is current inflation wale mahaul mein mushkil ho sakta hai. Global events ka commodity, shipping aur currency par lagatar impact medium- to long-term planning ko difficult bana raha hai.
Analysts abhi saavdhani se stock pick karne ko keh rahe hain. FY27 mein jab inflation kam hoga aur commodity prices girengi, tab volume growth dikh sakti hai. Marico, Godrej Consumer aur Tata Consumer Products jaise stocks ko isse fayda ho sakta hai. Kuch reports Havells India aur Trent ko BUY ya ADD bol rahi hain, par kuch Trent ko SELL bhi bol rahe hain, jo near-term prospects par divided sentiment dikha raha hai.
Sabhi companies abhi cost control aur agile price management par hi focus karengi jab tak yeh uncertainty kam nahi ho jati.