Sabse pehle industry ki baat karte hain. Ye jo online aur offline dukaanen hain na, sab discount pe discount de rahi hain! E-commerce pe toh 70% tak ka discount chal raha hai, aur offline pe bhi 50-60% discount se peeche nahi hain. Naye naye players bhi aa gaye hain jaise Mokobara, Delsey Paris, aur woh bhi full-on discount de rahe hain. Isliye sabke selling prices kam ho rahe hain, bhaale hi overall market thoda-thoda grow kar raha ho.
Ab baat karte hain Safari Industries ki. Inka performance ekdum jabardast raha hai! Revenue saal-dar-saal 15.7% badha hai, aur volumes toh 20% uchhal gaye hain. Offline business 22% growth dikha raha hai, online se bhi aage nikal gaya. Haan, Q3 mein thoda discount ki wajah se profit margins pe pressure tha, par Q4 mein 13.5-14% tak wapas aane ki ummeed hai. Company apna business aur badhane ke liye ₹500 crore ka QIP bhi la rahi hai. Analysts ko ye stock bahut pasand hai, average target price ₹2,518.70 ke aas paas hai. Iska P/E ratio bhi 50-60x chal raha hai, matlab market inko kafi premium de raha hai.
Lekin VIP Industries ka scenario bilkul alag hai. Inka revenue saal-dar-saal 9.4% gir gaya. Iska reason hai aggressive discounting (khaas kar Carlton brand pe), competition aur price kam milna. Company ka P/E ratio toh negative mein hai, matlab abhi yeh loss mein chal rahi hai. Par Motilal Oswal jaise analysts ko abhi bhi ummeed hai ki naye leadership aur strategy se yeh comeback kar sakte hain. FY27 mein double-digit volume growth aur high single-digit revenue growth ki ummeed hai, target ₹475 diya hai. Lekin doosre analysts jaise Prabhudas Lilladher ne 'Reduce' rating de kar target ₹352 kar diya hai, kyunki unko lagta hai ki competition aur margin pressure kam nahi hoga.
Toh overall, industry mein competition aur discount ka pressure abhi bhi hai. Safari apna premium valuation maintain kar paati hai ya nahi, ye dekhna hoga. Aur VIP ko apne turnaround plan ko successfully execute karne mein kaafi mehnat lagegi. Motilal Oswal ka kehna hai ki FY27 tak demand recover hogi aur industry ka size ₹267 billion tak pahunch sakta hai 2028 tak. Lekin jab tak discounts high rahenge, profits pe pressure rehne ki sambhavna hai.