Whalesbook
Kyun aa rahi hai companies ko mushkil?
Asal mein, West Asia mein jo chal raha hai na, usse gas (LNG) ki supply mein dikkat aa rahi hai. Iska seedha asar glass bottles banane par pad raha hai, jisse production 35-40% kam ho gaya hai. Ab bottles mehngi ho gayi hain, lagbhag 20% zyada, matlab ek case ka ₹280-300 pad raha hai. Packaging companies ke revenue ka ek bada hissa hai, beer companies ke liye 35% aur spirits ke liye 25%. Lekin sarkar ne price control laga rakha hai, isliye companies apna badha hua kharcha consumers par daal nahi paa rahi hain.
Revenue Growth Ka Kya Hoga?
Is situation ki wajah se, industry ka revenue growth pehle ke 11% se kam hokar sirf 5-7% rehne ka andaza hai. Beer banane wali companies ko zyada nuksan ho sakta hai, unke margins 2.5-3% tak gir sakte hain, jabki spirits companies 1.4-1.8% tak ka dip dekh sakti hain. Overall industry margins ab 11.5% se 12% ke beech rehne ka andaza hai.
Companyyan Kaise Manage Kar Rahi Hain?
Sabse badi dikkat glass bottles ki kami hai, jo spirits aur beer ke 95% se zyada products ke liye zaroori hain. Production season nazdeek aa raha hai aur companies ko required bottles aur cans mil nahi rahe hain. Isse nipatne ke liye, companies apni inventory ko 50-60 din se kam karke 20-30 din tak le aayi hain, taaki cash flow theek rahe. Lekin phir bhi, supply ki problem bani hui hai.
Aage Ka Outlook Kaisa Hai?
Operational problems hone ke bavajood, analysts ka kehna hai ki companies ki financial health theek rahegi. FY25 se FY28 tak, profit growth 17-20% annual average se badh sakta hai, kyunki log premium products zyada kharid rahe hain aur input costs bhi stabilize hone ki ummeed hai. Lekin regulatory issues, especially state price controls, beer companies ko zyada pareshan kar rahe hain. United Breweries jaise companies par iska zyada asar padega compare to United Spirits aur Radico Khaitan, jo premium segments par focus kar rahe hain.