Whalesbook
India ka Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector ek bade slowdown ka saamna kar raha hai. Is saal volume growth sirf 3-4% rehne ka andaaza hai. Yeh haal filhaal ke recovery trends se kaafi alag hai aur iska reason global energy market mein volatility aur food inflation ka badhta risk hai.
Worldpanel by Numerator ke analysts ne bataya hai ki $100 per barrel se upar crude oil ki prices FMCG companies ke liye logistics, packaging materials, aur fertilizers jaise important costs ko seedha affect karti hain.
Monsoon ki Chinta Badha Rahi Hai Inflation
Aur iske saath, monsoon bhi kamzor rehne ki forecasting hai. Jab monsoon kamzor hota hai toh rural areas mein economic recovery slow ho jaati hai, jo ki kai zaruri food items aur kam price wale consumer goods ke liye ek bada market hai. Is uncertainty ki wajah se log essential nahi toh kharch kam kar sakte hain aur shopping bhi kam baar karenge, jis se overall volume aur kam ho sakta hai.
Companies Ne Badhaye Prices, Consumers Ne Adapt Kiya
Yeh slowdown aise samay mein aa raha hai jab March quarter mein FMCG volumes 5.4% tak recover ho gaye the (last year 3.5% se). Yeh recovery thoda Goods and Services Tax (GST) mein kami ki wajah se bhi thi. Lekin, oil prices mein haal hi mein hui tezi ne Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Dabur, Godrej Consumer Products, aur Marico jaise bade companies ko prices 2-7% tak badhane par majboor kar diya hai. Retail fuel prices badhne ke saath aur bhi price adjustments ki ummeed hai.
"Consumers chote packs zyada kharid sakte hain," K Ramakrishnan, MD, South Asia at Worldpanel by Numerator ne kaha. Yeh strategy consumers ko rising costs manage karne mein help karegi. Pichle 2 saalon mein, staple goods ki bhi price per unit kaafi badhi hai. Jabki isne pichle saal value growth ko 13.3% tak pahunchaya hai, yeh volume growth se zyada hai, jo batata hai ki current expansion zyada tar higher prices ki wajah se hai, consumption badhne se nahi.