Excise Duty Hike Ka Bada Dhamaka
Asal mein, ITC ke share price ki band bajane ka sabse bada reason hai naya excise duty hike jo February 1, 2026 se लागू ho gaya hai. Is tax increase ke baad se, investors ko lagbhag ₹1 lakh crore ka nuksaan hua hai aur stock saal dar saal (YTD) mein 15-20% tak gir gaya hai. Ye duty ₹2,050 se ₹8,500 per 1,000 sticks tak hai, jisme 40% GST bhi add hota hai. Analysts keh rahe hain ki ye market ki fundamental problem nahi, balki policy ka asar hai.
Sales Badi, Par Profit Kahan Hai?
ITC ne Q3 FY26 mein apne core cigarette business mein 8% ki consolidated gross sales growth report ki hai, jo ki 6.5% volume growth ke saath aaya hai. Ye expected numbers se behtar hai. Lekin, jab profits ki baat aati hai, toh cigarette EBIT margin 140 basis points gir kar 56.7% par aa gaya hai. Iska reason hai leaf tobacco ke badhte daam. EBIT growth sirf 5.7% rahi, jo ki expected 6.4% se kam hai.
Brokerage Kya Keh Rahe Hain?
Is situation ko dekh kar Motilal Oswal ne ITC par apna Neutral rating maintain rakha hai aur target price ₹365 set kiya hai, jo December 2027 ke estimated earnings par 21x P/E hai. Systematix bhi 'Hold' call par hai aur target ₹355 diya hai, aur FY26/27/28 ke revenue aur EPS estimates bhi kam kar diye hain. Unka kehna hai ki tax badhne se sales par impact ho sakta hai agar company price increase kare.
Market Reaction Aur Competition
In sab news ke baad, ITC ka stock February 2, 2026 ko ₹303-309 ke beech mein trade kar raha tha. Company ki market cap abhi ₹3.87 lakh crore ke aas paas hai. ITC ka P/E ratio TTM basis par 11x se 19x ke beech mein chal raha hai. History mein bhi dekha gaya hai ki jab tax badhta hai, toh ITC stock girta hai. Market mein Godfrey Phillips India aur VST Industries jaise competitors hain, aur FMCG side pe Hindustan Unilever aur Nestlé bhi hain. Illicit tobacco market ka badhna bhi ek badi chinta hai.
Diversification Par Bhi Focus
Cigarette business ke alawa, ITC apne FMCG portfolio ko bhi expand kar raha hai. Unhone naye gourmet coffee capsules, frozen food ranges launch kiye hain aur climate-smart agriculture initiatives bhi chala rahe hain. Ye sab efforts unke core business ke risks ko kam karne aur naye growth areas explore karne ke liye hain.