Q3 Mein Kamaal, Par Aage Kya? (Results ki Kahani)
Yaar, ITC ne waqai mein is quarter mein performance dikhayi hai. Unka consolidated revenue 7.1% saal-dar-saal badh gaya hai, jismein FMCG-Others segment ne 11% ki tezi dikhayi aur Cigarettes business bhi 8.2% grow kiya hai. Standalone Gross Revenue ₹19,200 crore raha aur PBT bhi ₹6,959 crore ke aas-paas tha. Sabse badhiya baat yeh hai ki board ne ₹6.50 per share ka interim dividend bhi diya hai shareholders ko, matlab paisa wapas mil raha hai! FMCG-Others mein toh mast kaam hua hai, unke brands jaise Yogabar aur Mother Sparsh 60% tak chamke hain.
Tax Ka Blast: Cigarette Business Par Khatra?
Ab aati hai asli picture, jo thodi dark hai. Jaise hi February 2026 shuru hua, tobacco products par GST aur excise duty mein bhari bharkam izafa ho gaya hai. GST 28% se seedha 40% ho gaya hai aur naye excise duty rates lag gaye hain. Isse overall tax 40% se 50% tak pahunch sakta hai. Yaad hai, Budget 2026 ke baad stock 15% gira tha? Wahi risk phir se aa gaya hai. Analysts keh rahe hain ki company ko price 25-40% tak badhani pad sakti hai, jisse sales 6-8% tak kam ho sakti hain. Aur toh aur, isse illegal trade bhi badhne ka darr hai, jisse sarkaar ko saal ka ₹23,000 crore ka nuksaan hota hai.
Valuation Aur Diversification: Kya Bachayega ITC Ko?
ITC ka P/E ratio abhi lagbhag 18.3x se 19.8x TTM par hai, jo Nifty FMCG index (jo 36.4x se 43.71x par hai) ke comparison mein kaafi kam hai. Matlab market shayad cigarette business ke risk ko discount kar raha hai. RSI bhi 25.0 ke aas-paas hai, matlab stock thoda oversold lag raha hai, jo short term mein recovery dikha sakta hai. Company apne Agri Business ko 6.3% aur Paperboards ko 11% grow kar rahi hai, aur FoodTech business bhi badha rahi hai. Ye diversification unhe cigarette ke pressure se bachane mein madad kar sakti hai. Analyst log 'Neutral' ya 'Hold' rating de rahe hain, aur price target ₹378 se ₹433 tak ka de rahe hain, matlab 21-33% tak ka upside dikh raha hai. Company debt-free hai aur dividend yield bhi achha hai 4.45% ke aas-paas. Lekin asal sawal yahi hai ki kya ye diversification aur achhi performance, naye tax ki maar ko recover kar paayegi ya nahi.