Whalesbook
Toh bhaiyo aur beheno, ITC ke stock mein aajkal jo gadbad chal rahi hai na, uske peeche ka main reason hai govt ka naya tax hike. March 2026 mein ye stock seedha 52-week low par pahunch gaya tha. Sabse pehle toh jaan lo ki govt ne tobacco products par GST 40% (pehle 28% tha) aur excise duty bhi kaafi badha di hai.
Cigarette Business Ab Bhi Solid Hai?
Abhi lagta hai ki ITC ka cigarette business, jo company ke profit ka 80% generate karta hai, sabse zyada affect hua hai. Lekin company ne smart move maara hai aur apne products ke price 19% se lekar 41% tak badha diye hain. Isse company ka cash flow stable hai, aur ye cheez market mein chal rahe bade global events jaise Iran-US conflict ke time mein kaafi kaam aati hai, kyunki aise time mein defensive stocks chal jaate hain.
Baaki Business Toh Undervalued Hain?
Is tax pressure ke beech, ITC apna Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) business, jismein Aashirvaad, Bingo, Savlon jaise brands hain, use badha rahi hai. Lekin market in businesses ko utna value nahi de raha jitna dena chahiye. Dekho na, Nifty FMCG index ka P/E ratio 34.7 hai, Nestle India ka 70 se upar, aur HUL ka 45 ke aas paas. Par ITC ka overall P/E ratio sirf 18 ke aas paas hai, jo uske 10-year average 22.5 se bhi kam hai. Matlab, investors sirf tax issues par focus kar rahe hain aur baaki businesses ke growth potential ko nazarandaaz kar rahe hain. ITC food sector mein kuch acquisitions bhi soch rahi hai taaki is valuation gap ko bhar sake.
Risk Kya Hai?
Sabse bada risk toh tax pressure hi hai. Govt agar aur tax badha degi toh mushkil ho sakti hai. Doosra risk hai illicit trade ka badhna, matlab log illegal cigarettes khareedne lag jayenge. Aur global events toh chal hi rahe hain jo overall economy ko affect kar sakte hain.
Aage Kya Ho Sakta Hai?
ITC apne investors ko accha dividend bhi deti hai, lagbhag 4-5% tak. Analysts bhi 'Hold' rating de rahe hain aur unka target price abhi ke levels se 23-45% upar jaane ka hai. Agar company apne FMCG aur dusre businesses mein growth dikhati rahi aur cigarette business ko manage karti rahi, toh stock mein recovery dikh sakti hai. Current P/E ratio 17.5 kuch analysts ko attractive lag raha hai.